Nuggets vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Finals Game 3

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The Miami Heat (44-38) are aiming to pull off an upset as slight 3.5-point underdogs for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, and will face off against the Denver Nuggets at FTX Arena on Wednesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. The series is even 1-1. The point total is 213.5 points in this outing.

How to bet Nuggets vs. Heat

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Nuggets as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Nuggets have -168 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +142 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 213.5 points.

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Nuggets vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Wednesday, June 7, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Nuggets are 44-36-2 against the spread this season. Denver has been the favorite in 61 games this season and has come away with the win 43 times (70.5%) in those contests. Nuggets games this year have hit the over on 37 of 82 set point totals.

Against the spread, the Heat are 30-48-4 this season. Miami is 8-16 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games). Heat games this year have gone over the total in 40 of 82 opportunities (48.8%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Nuggets Leaders
Nikola Jokic 69 24.5 11.8 9.8 1.3 0.7 0.8
Jamal Murray 65 20 4 6.2 1 0.2 2.6
Michael Porter Jr. 62 17.4 5.5 1 0.6 0.5 3
Aaron Gordon 68 16.3 6.6 3 0.8 0.8 0.9
Bruce Brown 80 11.5 4.1 3.4 1.1 0.6 1.1


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Nuggets: None

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand)

What you need to know about the Denver Nuggets

Denver is averaging 115.8 points per game (12th-ranked in NBA) this season, while giving up 112.5 points per contest (eighth-ranked). The Nuggets are putting up 119.4 points per game this season at home, which is 7.2 more points than they’re averaging on the road (112.2). The Nuggets have seen an increase in scoring lately, racking up 116.5 points per game in their last 10 contests, 0.7 points more than the 115.8 they’ve scored this season.

With a 37.9% three-point percentage this season, Denver ranks fourth-best in the NBA. It ranks 18th in the league by draining 11.8 threes per contest. Of the shots taken by the Nuggets in 2022-23, 63.9% of them have been two-pointers (72.9% of the team’s made baskets) and 36.1% have been from beyond the arc (27.1%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Miami is the worst squad in the NBA in points scored (109.5 per game) but second-best in points conceded (109.8). At home, the Heat average 111.4 points per game. Away, they average 107.5. The Heat have played worse offensively over their past 10 games, compiling 106.4 points per contest, 3.1 fewer points their than season average of 109.5.

Miami is 16th in the league in 3-pointers made (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). In 2022-23, the Heat have taken 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the arc, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s baskets have been 2-pointers, and 30.5% have been 3-pointers.

Our pick to win this game is the Heat, and we project that Heat will cover the spread (Nuggets -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 213.5 points.

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You can bet on Nuggets vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Nuggets vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Austin Harper

Austin is a co-founders at Betsperts and a devoted father of 2. Born and raised in Atlanta Georgia, Austin is passionate about the Atlanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons. Austin received his Bachelors of Science from Clemson University and gets back for Clemson football and basketball games every chance he gets!

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