Minnesota vs. Dallas Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Wednesday, May 22, 2024

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will play the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

The Timberwolves hit the court as 4.5-point favorites against the Mavericks. The matchup features a point total of 207.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds

Point Spread for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Timberwolves as the favorite.

Minnesota vs. Dallas Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Minnesota has -185 odds to win the game, while Dallas is listed at +154 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 207 points.

Game Time and How to Watch

  • When: Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 8:30 PM ET
  • Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • TV: TNT

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Betting Trends

The Timberwolves have covered the spread 40 times this season (40-40-2). Minnesota has won 46, or 75.4%, of the 61 games it has played as the favorite this season. Games involving the Timberwolves have hit the over 41 times this season.

The Mavericks have gone 48-34-0 against the spread this season. Dallas has been an underdog in 31 games this season and has come away with the win 12 times (38.7%) in those contests. This season, 36 of the Mavericks’ games have gone over the point total.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Key Players to Watch

Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards is averaging 25.9 points, 5.1 assists and 5.4 boards per contest. Rudy Gobert’s numbers on the season are 14.0 points, 1.3 assists and 12.9 boards per game. Karl-Anthony Towns puts up 21.8 points, 8.3 boards and 3.0 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 0.7 steals and 0.7 blocks. Naz Reid is putting up 13.5 points, 1.3 assists and 5.2 boards per game.

Mavericks

Luka Doncic’s averages for the season are 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists, making 48.7% of his shots from the field and 38.2% from 3-point range, with 4.1 triples per game (second in league). Kyrie Irving contributes with 25.6 points per game, plus 5.0 boards and 5.2 assists. The Mavericks receive 11.0 points per game from Daniel Gafford, plus 7.6 boards and 1.6 assists. P.J. Washington averages 12.9 points, 5.6 boards and 1.9 assists, making 43.6% of his shots from the floor and 32.0% from 3-point range, with 1.8 treys per game.

What you need to know about the Timberwolves

The Timberwolves have been led by their defense, as they rank best in the NBA by giving up just 106.5 points per game. They rank 18th in the league in points scored (113.0 per contest). The Timberwolves are grabbing 43.6 boards per game this year (15th-ranked in NBA), and they’ve ceded just 41.4 rebounds per game (fourth-best). The Timberwolves rank 15th in the NBA with 26.6 assists per game.

Offensively Minnesota has played worse when playing at home this season, posting 112.0 points per game, compared to 114.0 per game in away games. With a 38.7% three-point percentage this season, Minnesota ranks third-best in the NBA. It ranks 15th in the league by sinking 12.6 treys per contest. Minnesota is allowing opposing teams to post a 35.4% three-point percentage this year (sixth-ranked in NBA), but it has provided a lift by giving up only 11.4 threes per contest (third-best).

The Timberwolves are 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 overall over their past 10 contests. In its past 10 games, Minnesota has hit the over five times. On the offensive side of the ball, the Timberwolves have had a hard time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 107.2 points per contest over that span compared to the 113.0 they’ve put up over the course of this year. Minnesota’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (100.1) is 6.4 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (106.5).

What you need to know about the Mavericks

On offense the Mavericks are the seventh-ranked team in the NBA (117.9 points per game). On defense they are 20th (115.6 points allowed per game). Dallas collects 42.9 rebounds per game and concede 45.1 boards, ranking 21st and 25th, respectively, in the NBA. This season the Mavericks are ranked 19th in the NBA in assists at 25.7 per game.

In 2023-24 the Mavericks are averaging 1.7 more points per game at home (118.7) than away (117.0). The Mavericks are the third-best squad in the league in 3-pointers made (14.6 per game) and 13th in 3-point percentage (36.9%). Dallas is 18th in the league in 3-pointers allowed (13.1 per game) and 18th in 3-point percentage defensively (36.8%).

The Mavericks have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their past 10 games. Dallas has hit the over in five of its last 10 contests. Dallas has performed worse offensively in its last 10 games, tallying 108.5 points per contest, 9.4 fewer points its than season average of 117.9. Over their last 10 games, the Mavericks are giving up 103.6 points per game, compared to their season average of 115.6 points allowed.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Timberwolves, and we expect that Timberwolves will cover the spread (Timberwolves -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 207 points.

How to bet Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

You can bet on Minnesota vs. Dallas at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Minnesota vs. Dallas picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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