Miami vs. Washington Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Sunday, March 31, 2024

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Southeast Division foes face one another when the Miami Heat (40-33) travel to face the Washington Wizards (14-60) at Capital One Arena on March 31, 2024. It’s the fourth matchup between the clubs this year.

The Heat are a double-digit favorite against the Wizards when the Heat and the Wizards square off. The Heat are favored by 11 points. The game’s over/under is set at 214.5.

Heat vs. Wizards Odds

Point Spread for Heat vs. Wizards

The spread for this matchup is set at 11 points, with oddsmakers listing the Heat as the favorite.

Miami vs. Washington Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Miami has -575 odds to win the game, while Washington is listed at +425 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 214.5 points.

Game Time and How to Watch

  • When: Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 6:00 PM ET
  • Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
  • TV: MNMT

Heat vs. Wizards Betting Trends

The Heat have put together a record of 35-36-2 against the spread this season. Miami has won 29, or 72.5%, of the 40 games it has played as the favorite this season. Games involving the Heat have hit the over 27 times out of 74 chances this season.

The Wizards have registered a 33-40-1 record against the spread this season. Washington has been chosen as underdogs in 67 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (17.9%) in those games. This season, 36 of the Wizards’ games have gone over the point total.

Heat vs. Wizards Key Players to Watch

Heat

Bam Adebayo is posting 19.7 points, 4.0 assists and 10.6 boards per contest. Jimmy Butler’s numbers for the season are 21.1 points, 5.3 boards and 4.9 assists per contest, shooting 50.1% from the field and 41.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.0 made 3-pointers per contest. Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s numbers on the season are 12.3 points, 2.6 assists and 3.9 boards per contest. Duncan Robinson averages 13.5 points, 2.6 boards and 3.0 assists per contest, shooting 45.7% from the floor and 40.5% from beyond the arc, with 2.9 made 3-pointers per contest.

Wizards

Kyle Kuzma gives the Wizards 22.3 points, 6.6 boards and 4.2 assists per contest. He also averages 0.5 steals and 0.7 blocks. Deni Avdija gives 14.3 points, 7.1 boards and 3.8 assists per game, plus 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocks. Jordan Poole provides the Wizards 16.9 points, 2.6 boards and 4.0 assists per game, plus 1.1 steals and 0.3 blocks. The Wizards receive 12.8 points per game from Corey Kispert, plus 2.7 boards and 1.7 assists.

What you need to know about the Heat

The Heat have had to rely on their defense, which ranks fourth-best in the NBA (108.5 points allowed per game), as they rank fourth-worst in the league on offense with only 109.8 points per contest. With 42.1 rebounds per game, the Heat are 25th in the NBA. They cede 42.9 rebounds per contest, which ranks 12th in the league. The Heat rank 19th in the NBA with 25.8 dimes per game.

Miami is posting 112.5 points per game in home games. In away games, it is averaging 107.1 points per contest. This year, Miami is making 12.3 three-pointers per game (18th-ranked in NBA) and is shooting 37.0% (12th-ranked) from downtown. Miami is allowing 13.2 threes per game (17th-ranked in NBA) this year, while allowing a 35.9% three-point percentage (10th-ranked).

The Heat are 4-6 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their last 10 games. In its past 10 contests, Miami has hit the over three times. The Heat have been putting up 104.9 points per contest in their last 10 appearances, an average that’s slightly lower than the 109.8 they’ve scored over the course of the 2023-24 campaign. Miami’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (99.8) is 8.7 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (108.5).

What you need to know about the Wizards

In 2023-24, the Wizards are 17th in the league offensively (113.4 points scored per game) and worst on defense (123.0 points conceded). On the boards, Washington is second-worst in the league in rebounds (41.1 per game). It is the worst in rebounds allowed (48.8 per game). The Wizards are ninth in the NBA in assists (27.9 per game) in 2023-24.

In 2023-24 the Wizards are averaging 1.5 fewer points per game at home (112.6) than away (114.1). In 2023-24 the Wizards are 21st in the NBA in 3-point makes (12.2 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.8%). Washington gives up 12.2 3-pointers per game and concedes 36.2% from beyond the arc, ranking eighth and 12th, respectively, in the league.

The Wizards have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a 3-7 record against the spread in that span. In its past 10 games, Washington has hit the over five times. In its previous 10 games, Washington is compiling 106.6 points per contest, compared to its season average of 113.4. Over their previous 10 games, the Wizards are ceding 117.2 points per game, 5.8 fewer points than their season average (123.0).

Heat vs. Wizards Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Heat, and we predict that Wizards will cover the spread (Heat -11). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 214.5 points.

How to bet Heat vs. Wizards

You can bet on Miami vs. Washington at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Miami vs. Washington picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

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WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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