Heat vs Mavericks Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Friday, January 20, 2023

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The high-powered offense of the Dallas Mavericks (24-22) will be tested when they take on the solid defense of the Miami Heat (25-21) on January 20, 2023 at American Airlines Center. The Heat are two-point favorites. The over/under for the matchup is 218 points.

How to bet Heat vs. Mavericks

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2 points, with bookmakers listing the Heat as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Heat have -126 odds to pick up the win, while the Mavericks are listed at +106 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 218 points.

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Heat vs. Mavericks Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Friday, January 20, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • Arena: American Airlines Center

Heat vs. Mavericks Betting Trends

In the Heat’s 46 games this season, they have 18 wins against the spread. Miami has come away with 21 wins in the 32 contests it has been listed as the favorite in this season. Heat games this year have hit the over 45.7% of the time (21 out of 46 games with a set point total).

The Mavericks have played 46 games, with 15 wins against the spread. Dallas has been the underdog on the moneyline 12 total times this season. Dallas has finished 1-11 in those games. Mavericks games this year have hit the over on 27 of 46 set point totals (58.7%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 32 22 6.3 5.2 2 0.4 0.6
Bam Adebayo 41 21.5 10.1 3 1.1 0.9 0
Tyler Herro 34 20.8 5.9 4.5 1 0.3 3.2
Max Strus 44 13.2 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 2.7
Kyle Lowry 37 12.9 4.5 5.6 1.1 0.5 2.2


Mavericks Leaders
Luka Doncic 41 33.7 8.8 8.8 1.6 0.6 2.8
Spencer Dinwiddie 45 16.7 3 5.2 0.8 0.3 2.6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 42 14 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.9
Dorian Finney-Smith 32 8.4 4.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.8
Josh Green 26 7.1 2.2 1.2 0.9 0 1
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Heat: Nikola Jovic: Out (Back), Duncan Robinson: Out (Finger), Omer Yurtseven: Out (Ankle)

Mavericks: Christian Wood: Out (Thumb), Tim Hardaway: Probable (Ankle), McKinley Wright: Out (Foot), Maxi Kleber: Out (Hamstring)

What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Because of Miami’s offensive struggles this year, ranking second-worst in the NBA with 109.2 points per game, it has been forced to count on its defense, which ranks second-best in the league by surrendering 108.6 points per game. The Heat average 109.7 points per game in home games, compared to 108.8 points per game in away games, a difference of 0.9 points per contest. On offense, the Heat have picked up their output a little bit over their last 10 games, scoring 111.8 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 109.2 they’ve put up over the course of this year.

So far this year, Miami is draining 12.1 threes per game (13th-ranked in NBA) and is shooting 33.8% (25th-ranked) from three-point land. The Heat are attempting 51.1 two-pointers per game this year, which account for 58.8% of the shots they’ve attempted (and 69.4% of the team’s baskets). Meanwhile, they are attempting 35.8 treys per contest, which are 41.2% of their shots (and 30.6% of the team’s buckets).

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What you need to know about the Dallas Mavericks

At 112.9 points scored per game and 112.7 points conceded, Dallas is 17th in the league on offense and 13th defensively. In 2022-23 the Mavericks are averaging 2.3 more points per game at home (114) than away (111.7). In their last 10 games, the Mavericks are scoring 115.2 points per contest, 2.3 more than their season average (112.9).

Beyond the arc, Dallas is third-best in the league in 3-pointers made per game (14.8). It is 15th in 3-point percentage at 35.9%. In 2022-23, the Mavericks have attempted 50.7% percent of their shots from inside the arc, and 49.3% percent from beyond it. In terms of made shots, 62.4% of the Mavericks’ buckets have been 2-pointers, and 37.6% have been 3-pointers.

Our pick to win this contest is the Mavericks, and we expect that Mavericks will cover the spread (Heat -2). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 218 points.

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You can bet on Heat vs. Mavericks at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Heat vs. Mavericks picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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