Heat vs Thunder Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Tuesday, January 10, 2023

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The Miami Heat (21-20) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (18-22) at FTX Arena, starting at 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, January 10, 2023. The Thunder are slight, 2-point underdogs in the game. A 222-point over/under has been set for the matchup.

How to bet Heat vs. Thunder

Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2 points, with sportsbooks listing the Heat as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Heat have -129 odds to pick up the win, while the Thunder are listed at +109 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 222 points.

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Heat vs. Thunder Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Tuesday, January 10, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Heat vs. Thunder Betting Trends

In the Heat’s 41 games this season, they have 16 wins against the spread. Miami has won 17, or 60.7%, of the 28 contests in which it was the favorite this year. Heat games this year have hit the over on 18 of 40 set point totals.

The Thunder have 24 wins against the spread in 40 games this season. Oklahoma City is 13-15 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 46.4% of those games). Thunder games this year have hit the over on 23 of 40 set point totals (57.5%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 27 21.6 6.4 5.6 2.1 0.3 0.7
Bam Adebayo 37 21.4 9.9 3.1 1.1 0.8 0
Tyler Herro 32 21.2 6 4.4 1 0.3 3.3
Max Strus 39 13 3.4 2 0.8 0.2 2.7
Victor Oladipo 15 10.9 3 3.3 1.7 0.3 1.5


Thunder Leaders
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 36 30.9 4.8 5.6 1.6 1.1 1
Josh Giddey 35 15.3 7.8 5.4 0.7 0.4 1.1
Luguentz Dort 39 14.3 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 1.8
Jalen Williams 36 11.6 3.8 2.8 0.9 0.5 0.8
Tre Mann 35 8.8 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 1.5
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Heat vs. Thunder Injury Report

Thunder: Aleksej Pokusevski: Out (Leg), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl: Out (Ankle), Ousmane Dieng: Out (Wrist), Chet Holmgren: Out (Foot)

What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Miami has been forced to rely on its defense, which ranks second-best in the NBA (109 points allowed per game), as it ranks worst in the league offensively with only 108.7 points per contest. In home games, the Heat are averaging 1.7 more points per game (109.6) than they are in road games (107.9). In their last 10 games, the Heat have been scoring 110.5 points per game, an average that’s slightly higher than the 108.7 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Miami is making 12.4 threes per game (11th-ranked in league). It has a 34% shooting percentage (25th-ranked) from beyond the arc. The Heat are attempting 50.3 two-pointers per game this season, which account for 58% of the shots they’ve attempted (and 68.5% of the team’s baskets). Meanwhile, they are attempting 36.4 treys per contest, which are 42% of their shots (and 31.5% of the team’s buckets).

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What you need to know about the Oklahoma City Thunder

At 116.5 points scored per game and 116.7 points allowed, Oklahoma City is eighth in the NBA on offense and 23rd defensively. In 2022-23 the Thunder are scoring 5.2 more points per game at home (118.8) than away (113.6). In their previous 10 games, the Thunder are averaging 120 points per contest, 3.5 more than their season average (116.5).

Beyond the arc, Oklahoma City is 15th in the league in 3-pointers made per game (12.1). It is 16th in 3-point percentage at 35.7%. The Thunder attempt 36.3% percent of their shots from behind the 3-point line, and 28% of their made shots are from there. Inside the arc, they attempt 63.7% of their shots, with 72% of their makes coming from there.

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Heat, and we expect that Heat will cover the spread (Heat -2). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 222 points.

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You can bet on Heat vs. Thunder at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Heat vs. Thunder picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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