Heat vs Celtics Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Eastern Conference Finals Game 4

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The Miami Heat lead 3-0 heading into a deciding Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are 1.5-point favorites for the game, which airs on TNT at 8:30 PM ET. The over/under in this game is set at 216.5.

How to bet Heat vs. Celtics

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Heat as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Heat have -120 odds to pick up the win, while the Celtics are listed at +100 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 216.5 points.

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Heat vs. Celtics Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Tuesday, May 23, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Heat vs. Celtics Betting Trends

The Heat have 30 wins against the spread in 82 games this year. Miami has won 36, or 62.1%, of the 58 contests in which it was the favorite this year. Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 40 times in 82 opportunities (48.8%).

Against the spread, the Celtics are 44-35-3 this year. Boston has put together a 4-4 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 50% of those games). The Celtics have hit the over 52.4% of the time this season (43 of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0.0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1.0 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 1.2


Celtics Leaders
Jayson Tatum 74 30.1 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.7 3.2
Jaylen Brown 67 26.6 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 2.4
Malcolm Brogdon 67 14.9 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.3 2.0
Derrick White 82 12.4 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.8
Marcus Smart 61 11.5 3.1 6.3 1.5 0.4 1.9
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Heat vs. Celtics Injury Report

Celtics: None

What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Although Miami is scoring just 109.5 points per game (worst in NBA), its defense has been giving them a nice lift, as it ranks second-best in the league by giving up 109.8 points per game. Offensively the Heat have fared better in home games this season, scoring 111.4 points per game, compared to 107.5 per game when playing on the road. The Heat have been putting up 111.6 points per contest in their last 10 times on the court, an average that’s a little higher than the 109.5 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Miami, who is 16th in the league with 12.0 made threes per game, is shooting just 34.4% from three-point land, which is fourth-worst in the NBA. The Heat have taken 59.2% two-pointers and 40.8% from beyond the arc this season. Of the team’s buckets, 69.5% are two-pointers and 30.5% are threes.

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What you need to know about the Boston Celtics

On offense, Boston is the fourth-best squad in the NBA (117.9 points per game). Defensively, it is fourth-best (111.4 points allowed per game). At home, the Celtics score 120.5 points per game. Away, they score 115.4. Over their previous 10 games, the Celtics are posting 109.8 points per contest, compared to their season average of 117.9.

Beyond the arc, Boston is second-best in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (16.0). It is sixth in 3-point percentage at 37.7%. The Celtics attempt 52% percent of their shots from inside the arc, and 48% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 62% of the Celtics’ baskets are 2-pointers, and 38% are 3-pointers.

Heat vs. Celtics Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Heat vs. Celtics at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Heat vs. Celtics picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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