Celtics vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Eastern Conference Finals Game 5

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The Miami Heat will try to prove the oddsmakers wrong as 8.5-point underdogs in a decisive Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Thursday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The Heat have a 3-1 series lead. The over/under for this game is set at 215.

How to bet Celtics vs. Heat

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 8.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Celtics as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Celtics have -321 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +257 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 215 points.

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Celtics vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, May 25, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • Arena: TD Garden

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Celtics are 44-35-3 against the spread this season. Boston has been the favorite in 74 games this season and has come away with the win 53 times (71.6%) in those contests. The Celtics have eclipsed the over/under in 52.4% of their opportunities this year (43 times in 82 games with a set point total).

The Heat have 30 wins against the spread in 82 games this year. Miami has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (8-16). Heat games this season have hit the over 48.8% of the time (40 out of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Celtics Leaders
Jayson Tatum 74 30.1 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.7 3.2
Jaylen Brown 67 26.6 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 2.4
Malcolm Brogdon 67 14.9 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.3 2
Derrick White 82 12.4 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.8
Marcus Smart 61 11.5 3.1 6.3 1.5 0.4 1.9


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Celtics vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand), Gabe Vincent: Out (Ankle)

What you need to know about the Boston Celtics

Boston has been getting things done both offensively and defensively this season, ranking fourth-best in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and fourth-best in points allowed per game (111.4). The Celtics average 120.5 points per game at home, compared to 115.4 points per game in road games, a difference of 5.1 points per contest. On the offensive side of the ball, the Celtics have had a hard time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 109.9 points per contest over that stretch compared to the 117.9 they’ve racked up over the course of this season.

Boston has a 37.7% three-point percentage this year (sixth-ranked in NBA), but it has really thrived by draining 16 threes per game (second-best). When it comes to shot breakdown, the Celtics have taken 52% two-pointers (accounting for 62% of the team’s buckets) and 48% from beyond the arc (38%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

In 2022-23, Miami is worst in the NBA offensively (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best defensively (109.8 points conceded). At home, the Heat score 111.4 points per game. On the road, they average 107.5. In their past 10 games, the Heat are tallying 108.7 points per game, compared to their season average of 109.5.

Miami is 16th in the NBA in 3-pointers made (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat take 40.8% percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and 59.2% percent from inside it. In terms of makes, 30.5% of the Heat’s buckets are 3-pointers, and 69.5% are 2-pointers.

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Celtics, and we predict that Heat will cover the spread (Celtics -8.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 215 points.

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You can bet on Celtics vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Celtics vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Austin Harper

Austin is a co-founders at Betsperts and a devoted father of 2. Born and raised in Atlanta Georgia, Austin is passionate about the Atlanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons. Austin received his Bachelors of Science from Clemson University and gets back for Clemson football and basketball games every chance he gets!

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