Celtics vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Eastern Conference Finals Game 3

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The Miami Heat lead 2-0 going into Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites for the game, which airs on TNT at 8:30 PM ET. The matchup has a 214.5 point total.

How to bet Celtics vs. Heat

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Celtics as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Celtics have -179 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +152 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 214.5 points.

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Celtics vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, May 21, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Celtics are 44-35-3 against the spread this season. Boston has been the favorite in 74 games this season and has come away with the win 53 times (71.6%) in those contests. Celtics games this year have hit the over on 43 of 82 set point totals.

The Heat are 30-48-4 against the spread this season. Miami has gone 8-16 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games). Heat games this season have eclipsed the over/under 48.8% of the time (40 out of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Celtics Leaders
Jayson Tatum 74 30.1 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.7 3.2
Jaylen Brown 67 26.6 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 2.4
Malcolm Brogdon 67 14.9 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.3 2
Derrick White 82 12.4 3.6 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.8
Marcus Smart 61 11.5 3.1 6.3 1.5 0.4 1.9


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Celtics: None

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand)

What you need to know about the Boston Celtics

In terms of points, Boston is playing well on both offense and defense, as it ranks fourth-best in the league in points scored (117.9 per game) and fourth-best in points allowed (111.4 per contest). Offensively the Celtics have performed better in home games this season, scoring 120.5 points per game, compared to 115.4 per game when playing on the road. The Celtics have been scoring 112.4 points per contest in their last 10 times on the court, an average that’s slightly lower than the 117.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 campaign.

Boston owns a 37.7% three-point percentage this season (sixth-ranked in NBA), but it has really shined by sinking 16 treys per game (second-best). When it comes to shot breakdown, the Celtics have taken 52% two-pointers (accounting for 62% of the team’s baskets) and 48% three-pointers (38%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Offensively Miami is the worst squad in the league (109.5 points per game). But defensively it is second-best (109.8 points allowed per game). The Heat are scoring more points at home (111.4 per game) than away (107.5). While the Heat are averaging 109.5 points per game in 2022-23, they have bettered that mark over their previous 10 games, producing 110.7 a contest.

In 2022-23 Miami is 16th in the league in 3-point makes (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat attempt 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the arc, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s buckets are 2-pointers, and 30.5% are 3-pointers.

Our prediction to win this contest is the Celtics, and we expect that Heat will cover the spread (Celtics -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 214.5 points.

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You can bet on Celtics vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Celtics vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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