Bucks vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Playoffs Game 4

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The Miami Heat (44-38) are looking to pull off an upset as 8-point underdogs heading into Game 4 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, and will face off against the Milwaukee Bucks at FTX Arena on Monday, tipping off at 7:30 PM ET on TNT. The Heat hold a 2-1 lead in the series. The matchup’s over/under is set at 218.

How to bet Bucks vs. Heat

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 8 points, with bookmakers listing the Bucks as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bucks have -357 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +284 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 218 points.

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Bucks vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Monday, April 24, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Bucks are 42-35-5 against the spread this year. Milwaukee has been the favorite in 66 games this season and has come away with the win 54 times (81.8%) in those contests. The Bucks have eclipsed the over/under in 50% of their opportunities this year (41 times in 82 games with a set point total).

The Heat are 30-48-4 against the spread this season. Miami has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (8-16). Heat games this year have hit the over on 40 of 82 set point totals (48.8%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 63 31.1 11.8 5.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Jrue Holiday 67 19.3 5.1 7.4 1.2 0.4 2.4
Brook Lopez 78 15.9 6.7 1.3 0.5 2.5 1.7
Khris Middleton 33 15.1 4.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 1.5
Bobby Portis 70 14.1 9.6 1.5 0.4 0.2 1.4


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo: Questionable (Back), Serge Ibaka: Out (Personal), Wesley Matthews: Out (Calf)

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Bam Adebayo: Probable (Hamstring), Jimmy Butler: Questionable (Glute), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand), Nikola Jovic: Out (Back)

What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

So far this season, Milwaukee is posting 116.9 points per game (eighth-ranked in NBA) and giving up 113.3 points per contest (14th-ranked). Offensively the Bucks have performed better in home games this season, scoring 118.8 points per game, compared to 115 per game in away games. In their last 10 games, the Bucks have been scoring 118.3 points per game, an average that’s slightly higher than the 116.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Milwaukee has a 36.8% three-point percentage this year (10th-ranked in NBA), but it has really provided a lift by draining 14.8 threes per contest (fourth-best). Of the shots taken by the Bucks in 2022-23, 55.4% of them have been two-pointers (65.3% of the team’s made baskets) and 44.6% have been from beyond three-point land (34.7%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Offensively Miami is the worst team in the NBA (109.5 points per game). But defensively it is second-best (109.8 points allowed per game). At home, the Heat average 111.4 points per game. Away, they score 107.5. Over their past 10 games, the Heat are averaging 116.4 points per contest, 6.9 more than their season average (109.5).

Beyond the arc, Miami is 16th in the league in 3-pointers made per game (12). It is fourth-worst in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. The Heat attempt 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the 3-point line, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s buckets are 2-pointers, and 30.5% are 3-pointers.

Bucks vs. Heat Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Bucks vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bucks vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Smullen

Hailing all the way from Dublin, Ireland, Dan Smullen has BSC. in the Sports and Exercise Sciences from the University of Limerick. He is data obsessed. In the past he has worked both as a video performance analyst and provided biometric performance testing and analysis for professional rugby teams. Dan is obsessed about helping the average punter become more successful at sports betting through the assistance of good sports betting data analysis. He has worked with over 200 journalists at multiple editorial teams in his previous role as Head of Search for the largest national news publisher in Ireland.

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