Bucks vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Playoffs Game 3

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The Milwaukee Bucks come into Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat as 5.5-point favorites. The playoff matchup on Saturday starts at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN from FTX Arena. The series is tied 1-1. The over/under for the matchup is 219.5.

How to bet Bucks vs. Heat

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 5.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bucks as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bucks have -215 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +179 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 219.5 points.

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Bucks vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, April 22, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Arena: FTX Arena

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Bucks are 42-35-5 against the spread this year. Milwaukee has been victorious in 54, or 81.8%, of the 66 contests it has been chosen as favorites in this season. Bucks games this year have gone over the total in 41 out of 82 opportunities (50%).

The Heat are 30-48-4 against the spread this year. Miami has won eight of the 24 games it was the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%). The Heat have gone over the point total 48.8% of the time this year (40 of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 63 31.1 11.8 5.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Jrue Holiday 67 19.3 5.1 7.4 1.2 0.4 2.4
Brook Lopez 78 15.9 6.7 1.3 0.5 2.5 1.7
Khris Middleton 33 15.1 4.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 1.5
Bobby Portis 70 14.1 9.6 1.5 0.4 0.2 1.4


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Victor Oladipo 42 10.7 3 3.5 1.4 0.3 1.7
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Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo: Questionable (Back), Serge Ibaka: Out (Personal), Wesley Matthews: Out (Calf)

Heat: Kyle Lowry: Questionable (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand), Nikola Jovic: Out (Back)

What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

Offensively, Milwaukee is scoring 116.9 points per game (eighth-ranked in league). It is allowing 113.3 points per contest on defense (14th-ranked). At home, the Bucks are posting 3.8 more points per game (118.8) than they are away from home (115). In their last 10 games, the Bucks have been racking up 121 points per game, an average that’s a little higher than the 116.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Milwaukee is top-five this season in three-point shooting, ranking fourth-best in the league with 14.8 treys per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 10th with a 36.8% shooting percentage from downtown. The Bucks are attempting 50.1 two-pointers per game this season, which account for 55.4% of the shots they’ve taken (and 65.3% of the team’s baskets). Meanwhile, they are attempting 40.3 treys per contest, which are 44.6% of their shots (and 34.7% of the team’s buckets).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

In 2022-23, Miami is worst in the NBA offensively (109.5 points scored per game) but second-best defensively (109.8 points allowed). The Heat are scoring more points at home (111.4 per game) than on the road (107.5). The Heat are compiling 114.3 points per game over their last 10 games, compared to their season average of 109.5.

Miami is 16th in the league in 3-pointers made (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat take 40.8% percent of their shots from behind the 3-point line, and 59.2% percent from inside it. In terms of makes, 30.5% of the Heat’s baskets are 3-pointers, and 69.5% are 2-pointers.

Our pick to win this game is the Bucks, and we predict that Heat will cover the spread (Bucks -5.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 219.5 points.

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You can bet on Bucks vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bucks vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Austin Harper

Austin is a co-founders at Betsperts and a devoted father of 2. Born and raised in Atlanta Georgia, Austin is passionate about the Atlanta Hawks, Braves, and Falcons. Austin received his Bachelors of Science from Clemson University and gets back for Clemson football and basketball games every chance he gets!

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