Bucks vs Heat Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Saturday, February 4, 2023

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A game featuring a pair of the best squads in the league defensively features the Milwaukee Bucks (35-17) favored by 5.5 points as they host the Miami Heat (29-24) at Fiserv Forum on February 4, 2023. The matchup’s point total is set at 223.

How to bet Bucks vs. Heat

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 5.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bucks as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bucks have -227 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +187 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 223 points.

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Bucks vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: BSSU
  • Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Arena: Fiserv Forum

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Bucks have played 52 games, with 27 wins against the spread. Milwaukee has been chosen as the favorite in 40 games this year and has walked away with the win 31 times (77.5%) in those games. Bucks games this year have eclipsed the over/under 47.2% of the time (25 out of 53 games with a set point total).

The Heat have 20 wins against the spread in 53 games this season. Miami has gone 5-10 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games). Heat games this season have hit the over 41.5% of the time (22 out of 53 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 41 32.3 12.3 5.1 0.8 0.8 0.9
Jrue Holiday 41 19.2 5.2 7.2 1.3 0.4 2.2
Brook Lopez 51 14.2 6.3 1.2 0.5 2.5 1.8
Khris Middleton 13 12 3 3.9 0.7 0.2 1.5
Grayson Allen 48 10.5 3.5 2.5 0.9 0.2 1.9


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 38 21.7 5.9 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 48 21.6 10 3.1 1.2 0.8 0
Tyler Herro 41 20.3 5.8 4.4 0.9 0.3 3
Max Strus 51 12.5 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 2.6
Victor Oladipo 26 11.2 3.5 3.9 1.7 0.2 1.4
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Bucks vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Probable (Ankle), Orlando Robinson: Out (Thumb), Nikola Jovic: Out (Back), Duncan Robinson: Out (Finger), Omer Yurtseven: Out (Ankle)

What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

With 114.1 points per game on offense, Milwaukee ranks 18th in the NBA. Defensively, it gives up 111.8 points per contest, which ranks sixth in the league. The Bucks are putting up 118.3 points per game when playing at home. On the road, they are averaging 109.6 points per contest. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bucks have picked up their production significantly over their last 10 games, scoring 122.2 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 114.1 they’ve racked up over the course of this season.

Milwaukee ranks fifth-best in the NBA by sinking 14.2 threes per game. In terms of three-point percentage, it ranks 17th in the league at 35.8%. When it comes to shot breakdown, the Bucks have taken 56% two-pointers (accounting for 65.7% of the team’s baskets) and 44% three-pointers (34.3%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

In 2022-23, Miami is worst in the league on offense (108.4 points scored per game) but second-best on defense (108.1 points conceded). At home, the Heat average 108.8 points per game. On the road, they average 107.9. In their last 10 games, the Heat are posting 106.7 points per contest, 1.7 fewer points than their season average (108.4).

In 2022-23 Miami is 18th in the NBA in 3-point makes (11.8 per game) and fifth-worst in 3-point percentage (33.7%). In 2022-23, the Heat have taken 40.7% percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and 59.3% percent from inside it. In terms of made shots, 30.2% of the Heat’s baskets have been 3-pointers, and 69.8% have been 2-pointers.

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Bucks, and we predict that Heat will cover the spread (Bucks -5.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 223 points.

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You can bet on Bucks vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bucks vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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