Mets vs Marlins Odds, Picks & Predictions – July 29

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The New York Mets (61-37) will visit the Miami Marlins (47-52), Friday at 6:40 PM ET, in a clash of NL East rivals. Chris Bassitt (7-7) will start for the Mets, and Sandy Alcantara (9-4) for the Marlins.

Despite playing away from home the Mets are at -125 to win, compared to the Marlins at +105. The total for this contest is set at 6.5.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Run Line

New York Mets (-1.5)

Moneyline

Mets (-125)

Total

6.5 Runs (Over: -113, Under: -108)

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When, Where, at What Time is Mets vs. Marlins

  • Game Day: Friday, July 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Stadium: LoanDepot park

Mets Injury Report

Name Status Injury
James McCann 10 Day Injury List Oblique
Dominic Smith 10 Day Injury List Ankle
Joey Lucchesi 60 Day Injury List Elbow
John Curtiss 60 Day Injury List Elbow
Jacob deGrom 60 Day Injury List Shoulder
Trevor May 60 Day Injury List Elbow
Sean Reid-Foley 60 Day Injury List Elbow
Tylor Megill 60 Day Injury List Shoulder

Marlins Injury Report

Name Status Injury
Jorge Soler 10 Day Injury List Back
Garrett Cooper 10 Day Injury List Wrist
Brian Anderson 10 Day Injury List Shoulder
Elieser Hernandez 10 Day Injury List Illness
Jon Berti 10 Day Injury List Groin
Max Meyer 15 Day Injury List Arm
Edward Cabrera 15 Day Injury List Elbow
Tommy Nance 15 Day Injury List Groin
Cole Sulser 15 Day Injury List Back
Jordan Holloway 15 Day Injury List Elbow
Jimmy Yacabonis 15 Day Injury List Groin
Jesús Luzardo 60 Day Injury List Forearm

Last Time Out: Mets and Marlins

The Mets beat the Yankees by a 3-2 score in their last game Friday. Pete Alonso went 1-for-3 with a home run and an RBI to lead them offensively while Seth Lugo picked up the win after throwing one inning without giving up an earned run on one hit, while striking out three.

The Marlins defeated the Reds 7-6 yesterday. Jesus Aguilar went 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and four RBI, and Zach Pop got the win, pitching one inning without giving up a hit or an earned run while striking out one.

Betting Trends

Mets Betting Records and Team Stats

This season, the Mets have won 47 out of the 70 games, or 67.1%, in which they’ve been favored. New York has a record of 41-20, a 67.2% win rate, when favored by -125 or more by sportsbooks this season. The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 55.6%. So far this season, New York and its opponents have hit the over in 49 of their 98 games with a total. In 98 games with a spread this season, the Mets are 51-47-0 ATS.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Pete Alonso 97 .281 (37) .357 (32) .547 (8) 6.3% (8) 19.8% (78) 8.9% (73)
Francisco Lindor 97 .251 (85) .325 (83) .430 (69) 3.7% (53) 20.3% (83) 8.6% (77)
Starling Marte 82 .300 (17) .349 (45) .465 (42) 2.8% (81) 19.3% (74) 5.0% (144)
Brandon Nimmo 90 .262 (65) .346 (48) .418 (83) 2.3% (102) 17.7% (55) 9.3% (62)
Jeff McNeil 85 .288 (32) .351 (39) .400 (98) 1.2% (138) 12.9% (15) 7.4% (100)

Marlins Betting Records and Team Stats

The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 53 games this year and have walked away with the win 19 times (35.8%) in those games. Miami has a win-loss record of 13-29 when favored by +105 or worse by oddsmakers this year. The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 48.8% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup. Miami’s games have gone over the total in 48 of their 99 opportunities. The Marlins have an against the spread record of 45-54-0 in 99 games with a line this season.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Jesús Aguilar 90 .248 (92) .294 (132) .397 (100) 3.2% (70) 23.7% (105) 5.7% (133)
Miguel Rojas 90 .238 (113) .284 (143) .349 (139) 1.9% (120) 11.9% (10) 5.3% (138)
Jesús Sánchez 88 .207 (150) .272 (149) .396 (101) 3.8% (49) 26.6% (133) 7.7% (93)
Joey Wendle 51 .296 (-) .341 (-) .402 (-) 1.1% (-) 10.3% (-) 5.4% (-)
Avisaíl García 87 .231 (123) .264 (153) .323 (148) 2.1% (110) 27.9% (140) 3.3% (157)

Mets vs. Marlins Picks and Predictions

Our prediction for Mets vs. Marlins is the Mets (-125 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. As for the over/under, we prefer the over on 6.5 runs.

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WRITTEN BY

Stacy Sailer

Stacy has been a baseball fan for as long as she can remember. She admits that she grew up as a spoiled Yankees fan in the late-90’s/early 2000’s, but has slowly evolved into a disgruntled Yankees fan due to their lone championship title in the last 21 seasons. She follows other sports, but her first love has always been baseball and loves getting to share her insight and knowledge with the Betsperts community.

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