Mets vs Braves Today: Picks, Predictions, Moneyline and Odds – Friday, September 30

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At Truist Park on Friday, the Atlanta Braves (96-59) take on the New York Mets (98-58), fellow members of the NL East, at 7:20 PM ET. The starting pitchers are Jacob deGrom (4-3) for the Mets, and Max Fried (13-7) for the Braves.

Despite being the away team the Mets are a moderate moneyline favorite (-121) over the Braves (+104). The game has an over/under set at 6.5 runs.

Mets vs. Braves Odds

Run Line

New York Mets (-1.5)

Moneyline

Mets (-121)

Total

6.5 Runs (Over: -107, Under: -113)

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When, Where, at What Time is Mets vs. Braves

  • Game Day: Friday, September 30, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:20 PM ET
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Stadium: Truist Park

Mets Injury Report

Name Status Injury
Starling Marte 10 Day Injury List Finger
Brett Baty 10 Day Injury List Thumb
Tommy Hunter 15 Day Injury List Back
Mychal Givens 15 Day Injury List Undisclosed
Bryce Montes de Oca 15 Day Injury List Hamstring
Joey Lucchesi 60 Day Injury List Elbow
John Curtiss 60 Day Injury List Elbow
Sean Reid-Foley 60 Day Injury List Elbow

Braves Injury Report

Name Status Injury
Ozzie Albies 10 Day Injury List Finger
Chadwick Tromp 10 Day Injury List Quadricep
Kirby Yates 15 Day Injury List Elbow
Spencer Strider 15 Day Injury List Oblique
Adam Duvall 60 Day Injury List Wrist
Darren O’Day 60 Day Injury List Calf
Manny Piña 60 Day Injury List Wrist
Luke Jackson 60 Day Injury List Elbow
Huascar Ynoa 60 Day Injury List Elbow

Last Time Out: Mets and Braves

The Mets won their last contest versus the Marlins by a 5-4 score Friday, with Drew Smith picking up the win pitching throwing one inning without giving up a hit or an earned run while striking out two. Eduardo Escobar went 3-for-5 with a home run and five RBI to lead them offensively.

The Braves were handed a 3-2 loss to the Nationals Friday. Matt Olson (2-for-3 with a home run and an RBI) led the way offensively, while Jackson Stephens took the loss on the mound after going zero innings without giving up an earned run on one hit.

Betting Trends

Mets Betting Records and Team Stats

This season, the Mets have been favored 123 times and won 81, or 65.9%, of those games. New York has a record of 77-40, a 65.8% win rate, when favored by -121 or more by sportsbooks this season. Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 54.8% chance to win. New York and its opponents have hit the over in 85 of their 160 games with a total this season. In 160 games with a spread this season, the Mets are 85-75-0 ATS.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Pete Alonso 155 .268 (46) .347 (34) .519 (10) 6.0% (5) 19.2% (66) 9.5% (50)
Francisco Lindor 155 .274 (38) .345 (36) .454 (45) 3.7% (48) 18.5% (56) 8.7% (64)
Brandon Nimmo 146 .266 (51) .362 (21) .416 (75) 2.2% (104) 17.4% (45) 10.8% (26)
Jeff McNeil 142 .320 (2) .377 (10) .439 (59) 1.2% (123) 10.8% (5) 6.9% (92)
Mark Canha 134 .265 (53) .369 (17) .400 (92) 2.3% (99) 18.0% (52) 9.3% (51)

Braves Betting Records and Team Stats

The Braves have been underdogs in 31 games this season and have come away with the win 10 times (32.3%) in those contests. This year, Atlanta has won four of 18 games when listed as at least +104 or worse on the moneyline. The Braves have an implied victory probability of 49% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup. Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 79 of their 159 opportunities. The Braves have an against the spread record of 80-79-0 in 159 games with a line this season.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Austin Riley 154 .275 (34) .350 (31) .531 (6) 5.5% (10) 23.8% (96) 8.2% (70)
Matt Olson 156 .236 (105) .322 (69) .460 (39) 4.5% (27) 24.2% (104) 10.8% (26)
Dansby Swanson 156 .276 (33) .328 (61) .435 (63) 3.3% (58) 26.4% (117) 7.0% (90)
Michael Harris 110 .305 (-) .344 (-) .531 (-) 4.5% (-) 24.0% (-) 4.5% (-)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 116 .267 (48) .352 (29) .421 (69) 2.9% (74) 23.5% (91) 9.8% (44)

Mets vs. Braves Picks and Predictions

Our pick for this matchup is the Braves to win (+104 on the moneyline), while we predict the scoring will go over the total (6.5 runs).

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WRITTEN BY

Stacy Sailer

Stacy has been a baseball fan for as long as she can remember. She admits that she grew up as a spoiled Yankees fan in the late-90’s/early 2000’s, but has slowly evolved into a disgruntled Yankees fan due to their lone championship title in the last 21 seasons. She follows other sports, but her first love has always been baseball and loves getting to share her insight and knowledge with the Betsperts community.

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