UCF vs. SMU Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiassetJtEP8Klucf knights vs smu mustangs Betsperts Media & Technology

AAC foes will clash when the UCF Knights (3-1) battle the SMU Mustangs (2-2).

UCF vs. SMU Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with sportsbooks listing UCF as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, UCF has -146 odds to pick up the win, while SMU is listed at +119 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 63.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch UCF vs. SMU Live?

  • Game Day: Wednesday, October 5, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN2
  • Location: Orlando, Florida
  • Stadium: FBC Mortgage Stadium

Betting Preview


Offensively, UCF has been a top-25 unit, ranking 18th-best in the FBS by putting up 481.3 yards per game. The defense ranks 26th (315.0 yards allowed per game). UCF has the 47th-ranked offense this season (34.3 points per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth-best with only 13.5 points allowed per game. UCF sports the 99th-ranked offense this year in terms of passing yards (206.8 passing yards per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking 14th-best with only 168.3 passing yards allowed per game. UCF has the 74th-ranked defense this season in terms of rushing yards (146.8 rushing yards allowed per game), and has been more effective offensively, ranking third-best with 274.5 rushing yards per game. Defensively, UCF has been a top-25 unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking 10th-best by giving up a 26.8% third-down percentage. The team’s offense ranks 33rd (46.2% third-down percentage). With four forced turnovers (113th in the FBS) against six turnovers committed (46th in the FBS), UCF (-2) has the 100th-ranked turnover margin in college football.


SMU’s offense has been consistently moving the chains, compiling 506.3 total yards per game (ninth-best) this season. On defense, it ranks 90th by surrendering 400.0 total yards per game. SMU’s defense ranks 69th in the FBS with 25.5 points surrendered per contest, but it has been lifted up by its offense, which ranks 22nd-best by piling up 38.5 points per game. SMU’s pass defense ranks 60th in the FBS with 219.5 passing yards given up per game, but it has been lifted up by its offense, which ranks fifth-best by accumulating 353.0 passing yards per game. From an offensive angle, SMU is accumulating 153.3 rushing yards per game (72nd-ranked). It ranks 104th in the FBS defensively (180.5 rushing yards given up per game). SMU’s third-down defense ranks 30th in the FBS with a 30.5% third-down conversion percentage allowed, but it has been carried by its offense, which ranks 11th-best by putting up a 51.5% third-down rate. At -3, SMU sports the 100th-ranked turnover margin in the FBS, with seven forced turnovers (61st in the FBS) and 10 turnovers committed (109th in the FBS).

UCF vs. SMU Betting Analysis

UCF Betting Insights

UCF has covered the spread two times this season (2-2-0). UCF has an ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites. This season, UCF games have hit the over once. The Knights have won 66.7% of the games this season when they were favored on the moneyline (2-1). The Knights are 0-0 (winning 66.7% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -146 or shorter.

Mustangs Betting Insights

SMU has covered the spread once in four games with a set spread. SMU has yet to cover the spread (0-2) when it is at least 2.5-point underdogs. SMU games have gone over the total once this year. The Mustangs have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Mustangs have a record of 0-0 in games where sportsbooks have them as underdogs of at least +119 on the moneyline.

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UCF vs. SMU Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 59.6 59.0 61.5
Implied Total AVG 39.8 41.3 35.0
ATS Record 2-2-0 1-2-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-3-0 1-2-0 0-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 1-1 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 68.9 67.8 70.0
Implied Total AVG 42.8 47.0 38.5
ATS Record 1-3-0 0-2-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 0-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1

Players to Watch


  • As part of the Knights’ defense, Tre’mon Morris-Brash has posted 11 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two sacks in four games.
  • With 13 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack in four games, Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste has been a key piece of the Knights’ defensive unit in 2022.
  • The Knights’ defense has been aided by the play of Josh Celiscar, who has played four games and posted 13 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack.
  • The Knights’ defensive unit has been aided by Jason Johnson, who has suited up for four games, compiling 24 tackles.


  • Nelson Paul has been causing chaos on defense, compiling 17 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three sacks for the Mustangs.
  • Elijah Chatman has been doing his part on defense, delivering eight tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks for the Mustangs.
  • Nick Roberts has been doing his part on defense, registering eight tackles and one interception for the Mustangs.
  • Shanon Reid has amassed 3.0 TFL, seven tackles, and one interception in four games for the Mustangs.

UCF vs. SMU Predictions and Pick

UCF vs. SMU betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Mustangs (+2.5)

    Pick OU:

    Under (63.5)

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How to Bet on UCF vs. SMU

You can bet on UCF vs. SMU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s UCF vs. SMU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this matchup is SMU, and we expect that SMU will cover the spread (UCF -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 63.5 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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