Troy vs. Arkansas State Prediction: Picks & Start Time – November 26, 2022

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The Troy Trojans (9-2) have a Sun Belt matchup against the Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-8).

Troy vs. Arkansas State Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 13.5 points, with bookmakers listing Troy as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Troy has -603 odds to pick up the win, while Arkansas State is listed at +431 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Troy vs. Arkansas State Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, November 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Location: Jonesboro, Arkansas
  • Stadium: Centennial Bank Stadium

Betting Preview

Troy

Troy sports the 82nd-ranked offense this year (368.7 yards per game), and has been even more effective defensively, ranking 19th-best with only 321.2 yards allowed per game. Troy ranks 103rd in points scored this season (22.5 points per game), but has been playing really well on defense, ranking ninth-best in the FBS with 16.6 points allowed per game. Troy is putting up 256.4 passing yards per game on offense (40th in the FBS), and ranks 32nd defensively with 196.0 passing yards allowed per game. While Troy’s run defense ranks 32nd with 125.2 rushing yards allowed per game, the offense has been less successful, ranking 19th-worst (112.4 rushing yards per game). Troy ranks 23rd-worst in third-down percentage (33.8%) and 24th-worst in third-down percentage allowed (43.1%) this season. Troy has forced 16 total turnovers (62nd in the FBS) this season and have turned it over 17 times (74th in the FBS) for -1a turnover margin of -1, 100th-ranked in college football.

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Arkansas State

Arkansas State ranks 17th-worst in total yards per game (319.8), but it has been more productive defensively, ranking 93rd in the FBS with 404.5 total yards ceded per contest. With 25.5 points per game on the offensive side of the ball, Arkansas State ranks 83rd in the FBS. On defense, it ranks 101st, surrendering 29.9 points per contest. Arkansas State is posting 227.1 passing yards per game on offense this season (70th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is allowing 251.6 passing yards per game (101st-ranked) on defense. Arkansas State ranks ninth-worst in rushing yards per game (92.7), but it has been better defensively, ranking 72nd in the FBS with 152.8 rushing yards allowed per contest. Arkansas State’s offense has been struggling on third down, ranking seventh-worst in the FBS with a 29.9% third-down conversion rate. It has been better on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a 36.4% third-down rate (50th-ranked). After forcing nine turnovers (124th in the FBS) and turning the ball over seven times (fourth in the FBS) this season, Arkansas State sports the 53rd-ranked turnover margin of +2.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Betting Analysis

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Troy Betting Insights

Troy is 8-3-0 against the spread this season. Troy has an ATS record of 1-2 when playing as at least 13.5-point favorites. Troy games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this season. The Trojans have won all five of the games they have been the moneyline favorite this season. The Trojans have played as a moneyline favorite of -603 or shorter in just two games this season, and they won both.

Red Wolves Betting Insights

Arkansas State has covered the spread seven times in 11 games with a set total. In games it has played as 13.5-point underdogs or more, Arkansas State has a perfect ATS record of 2-0. This season, Arkansas State games have hit the over six times. This season, the Red Wolves have been listed as the underdog in seven games and failed to win any of those contests. The Red Wolves have played as an underdog of +431 or more once this season and lost that game.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Against The Spread & Betting Records

Troy

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.4 48.3 50.7
Implied Total AVG 31.0 31.8 30.0
ATS Record 8-3-0 3-3-0 5-0-0
Over/Under Record 4-7-0 2-4-0 2-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-0 4-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-2 1-0 2-2

Red Wolves

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 56.0 54.7 57.0
Implied Total AVG 35.0 34.6 35.3
ATS Record 7-4-0 2-3-0 5-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-5-0 4-1-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-0 3-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-7 0-2 0-5

Players to Watch

Troy

  • T.J. Jackson has helped carry the Trojans’ defense with 42 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and seven sacks in 11 games.
  • As part of the Trojans’ defensive unit, Carlton Martial has delivered 0.5 sacks to go with 1.0 TFL, 79 tackles, and one interception in 11 games.
  • The Trojans’ defensive unit has been aided by the contributions of Craig Slocum, who has suited up for 11 games and amassed one interception to go along with 65 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one pass defended.
  • With 5.5 sacks to go along with 3.0 TFL and 28 tackles, Richard Jibunor has helped spur the Trojans’ defense over 11 games.

Red Wolves

  • Melique Straker has delivered 53 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two sacks in 11 games for the Red Wolves.
  • The Red Wolves’ Jaden Harris has delivered 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL, 57 tackles, and one interception in 11 games.
  • Jordan Carmouche has been causing chaos on defense, registering 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL and 54 tackles for the Red Wolves.
  • Trevian Thomas has delivered 45 tackles and one interception in 11 games for the Red Wolves.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Predictions and Pick

Troy vs. Arkansas State betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Trojans (-13.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (45)

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How to Bet on Troy vs. Arkansas State

You can bet on Troy vs. Arkansas State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Troy vs. Arkansas State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is Troy, and we predict that Troy will cover the spread (Troy -13.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 45 points.

WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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