Toledo vs. Liberty Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 20, 2022

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The Toledo Rockets will battle the Liberty Flames in the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl.

Toledo vs. Liberty Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Toledo as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Toledo has -169 odds to pick up the win, while Liberty is listed at +138 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 52 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Toledo vs. Liberty Live?

  • Game Day: Tuesday, December 20, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Boca Raton, Florida
  • Stadium: FAU Stadium

Betting Preview

Toledo

Toledo ranks 52nd in total offense (405.9 yards per game) and 27th in total defense (331.9 yards allowed per game) this year. Toledo is putting up 32.1 points per game on offense, which ranks them 39th in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, the defense ranks 59th, giving up 25.5 points per contest. Toledo has the 67th-ranked offense this season in terms of passing yards (228.2 passing yards per game), and has been better defensively, ranking 16th-best with only 185.5 passing yards allowed per game. Toledo is putting up 177.8 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 47th in the FBS. The team’s defensive unit ranks 60th, giving up 146.5 rushing yards per contest. From an offensive standpoint, Toledo ranks 67th in the FBS with a 39.1% third-down conversion rate. Meanwhile, the team’s defense ranks 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed (146.5). Toledo has forced 17 total turnovers (53rd in the FBS) this season and have turned it over 24 times (125th in the FBS) for -7a turnover margin of -7, 100th-ranked in college football.

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Liberty

Liberty is posting 364.6 total yards per game on offense this season (85th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is giving up 344.4 total yards per contest (38th-ranked). Liberty ranks 67th in the FBS with 28.3 points per game on offense, and it ranks 56th with 24.9 points surrendered per game on defense. From an offensive angle, Liberty is generating 200.7 passing yards per game (102nd-ranked). It ranks 33rd in the FBS on the other side of the ball (201 passing yards allowed per game). In terms of rushing, Liberty ranks 57th in the FBS on offense (163.9 rushing yards per game) and 55th defensively (143.4 rushing yards allowed per game). Liberty ranks 83rd in the FBS with a 37.3% third-down conversion percentage, but it has been carried by its defense, which ranks 21st-best by surrendering a 32.7% third-down rate. Liberty has registered 21 forced turnovers (17th in the FBS) and committed 22 turnovers (119th in the FBS) this season for a -1 turnover margin that ranks 100th in the FBS.

Toledo vs. Liberty Betting Analysis

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Toledo Betting Insights

Toledo is 5-8-0 against the spread this season. In games they were favored in by 3.5 points or more so far this season, the Toledo went 5-6 against the spread. Toledo games have gone over the total six times this season. The Rockets have won 63.6% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (7-4). When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -169 or shorter, the Rockets have a 5-3 record (winning 66.7% of their games).

Flames Betting Insights

Liberty have registered a 5-7-0 record against the spread this season. In games as an underdog by 3.5 points or more so far this season, the Flames are 4-0 against the spread. Games involving Liberty have hit the over on six occasions this year. The Flames have been underdogs in four games this season and won three (75%) of those contests. This season, the Flames have won three of their four games when they’re the underdog by at least +138 on the moneyline.

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Toledo vs. Liberty Against The Spread & Betting Records

Toledo

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 54.3 54 54.6
Implied Total AVG 34.4 37 32.1
ATS Record 5-8-0 3-3-0 2-5-0
Over/Under Record 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-4 4-1 3-3
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1

Flames

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 52.4 52.3 52.4
Implied Total AVG 33.4 34.3 32.5
ATS Record 5-7-0 2-4-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 6-6-0 1-5-0 5-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-3 2-2 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-1 2-0 1-1

Players to Watch

Toledo

  • With four TFL and 135 tackles in 12 games, Dallas Gant has been a key contributor to the Rockets’ defense in 2022.
  • Dyontae Johnson has helped spur the Rockets’ defense with three sacks to go along with five TFL and 103 tackles in 12 games.
  • Quinyon Mitchell has played 12 games, collecting 40 tackles, three TFL, and five interceptions for the Rockets.
  • With four sacks to go along with 11 TFL, 69 tackles, and one interception, Desjaun Johnson has helped lead the Rockets’ defense over 12 games.

Flames

  • In 11 games for the Flames, Durrell Johnson has collected seven sacks to go with 20 TFL, 47 tackles, and one interception.
  • On defense, Javon Scruggs has helped lead the way with 76 tackles, five TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 11 games.
  • Tyren Dupree has totaled four sacks to go with six TFL and 55 tackles in 11 games for the Flames.
  • On defense, Ahmad Walker has chipped in with 57 tackles, six TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 11 games.

Toledo vs. Liberty Predictions and Pick

Toledo vs. Liberty betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Flames (+3.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (52)

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How to Bet on Toledo vs. Liberty

You can bet on Toledo vs. Liberty at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Toledo vs. Liberty picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is Toledo, and we project that Liberty will cover the spread (Toledo -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 52 points.

WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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