TCU vs. Baylor Prediction: Picks & Start Time – November 18, 2023

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Big 12 foes will battle when the TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) meet the Baylor Bears (3-7).

TCU vs. Baylor Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 14 points, with bookmakers listing TCU as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, TCU has -587 odds to pick up the win, while Baylor is listed at +415 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 61 points.

Game Info

How to Watch TCU vs. Baylor Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, November 18, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Betting Preview


On the offensive side of the ball, TCU has been a top-25 unit, ranking 17th-best in the FBS by averaging 454.4 yards per game. The defense ranks 90th (395.3 yards allowed per game). TCU is putting up 28.9 points per game on offense, which ranks them 57th in the FBS. On defense, the defense ranks 58th, surrendering 24.8 points per contest. TCU ranks 105th in pass defense this season (244.5 passing yards allowed per game), but has been shining on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 12th-best in the FBS with 297.1 passing yards per game. TCU is totaling 157.3 rushing yards per game on offense this season (67th in the FBS), and is surrendering 150.8 rushing yards per game (69th) on the defensive side of the ball. TCU is putting up a 44.0% third-down percentage on offense this year (28th in the FBS), and is giving up a 38.2% third-down conversion rate (60th) on the other side of the ball. TCU has the eighth-worst turnover margin in college football at -7, forcing nine turnovers (91st in the FBS) while turning it over 16 times (118th in the FBS).


In terms of total yards, Baylor ranks 68th in the FBS (388.0 total yards per game) and 99th on defense (401.9 total yards allowed per contest). Baylor has not been getting things done on defense, ranking 18th-worst with 32.4 points allowed per game. It has been more effective offensively, generating 22.9 points per contest (98th-ranked). Baylor ranks 29th in the FBS with 274.2 passing yards per contest on offense, and it ranks 47th with 213.7 passing yards ceded per game on defense. Baylor has struggled on both sides of the ball in terms of rushing this season, ranking 22nd-worst in rushing yards (113.8 per game) and 11th-worst in rushing yards allowed (188.2 per game). From an offensive angle, Baylor is posting a 36.4% third-down conversion rate (91st-ranked). It ranks 100th in the FBS defensively (42.0% third-down rate allowed). After forcing 12 turnovers (46th in the FBS) and turning the ball over 10 times (45th in the FBS) this season, Baylor sports the 42nd-ranked turnover margin of +2.

TCU vs. Baylor Betting Analysis

TCU Betting Insights

TCU has covered the spread four times over 10 games with a set spread. TCU has yet to cover the spread when playing as at least 14-point favorites (0-2). This season, TCU games have hit the over three times. The Horned Frogs have compiled a 3-3 record in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 50% of those games). The Horned Frogs have played as a moneyline favorite of -587 or shorter in only one game this season, which they lost.

Baylor Betting Insights

Baylor is 3-6-0 against the spread this season. Baylor is winless against the spread when it has played as 14-point underdogs or more (0-2). Games involving Baylor have hit the over on five occasions this season. This season, the Bears have won two out of the seven games in which they’ve been the underdog. The Bears have not won as an underdog of +415 or more on the moneyline this season in two such games.

TCU vs. Baylor Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 58.1 57.4 59.0
Implied Total AVG 35.4 37.3 32.5
ATS Record 4-6-0 3-3-0 1-3-0
Over/Under Record 3-6-1 2-3-1 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-3 2-2 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.3 53.1 53.7
Implied Total AVG 31.7 31.3 32.3
ATS Record 3-6-0 1-5-0 2-1-0
Over/Under Record 5-4-0 2-4-0 3-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-2 0-2 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-5 0-4 2-1

Players to Watch


  • The Horned Frogs’ offense has been carried by Emani Bailey, who has scampered for 1,006 yards (100.6 yards per carry) and five rushing touchdowns.
  • In the receiving game, Bailey has added 141 receiving yards and zero touchdowns on 19 receptions.
  • Chandler Morris has suited up for six games in 2023, and he’s racked up 1,509 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 65.7% completion percentage.
  • As a runner, Morris has rushed for 249 yards (5.5 YPC) and three touchdowns.
  • Savion Williams has been an important part of the Horned Frogs’ aerial attack in 2023, posting 36 catches for 474 yards and four touchdowns.
  • Josh Hoover has accumulated 1,454 passing yards, nine touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 61.3% completion percentage in seven games in 2023.
  • With four sacks to go with two TFL and 72 tackles in 10 games, Namdi Obiazor has been an important contributor to the Horned Frogs’ defensive unit in 2023.
  • Jamoi Hodge has helped spur the Horned Frogs’ defense with two sacks to go along with three TFL and 61 tackles in 10 games.
  • Millard Bradford has played 10 games, amassing 39 tackles and two interceptions for the Horned Frogs.
  • With one TFL and 45 tackles, Mark Perry has helped propel the Horned Frogs’ defense over 10 games.


  • In seven games, Blake Shapen has passed for 1,991 yards (284.4 per game), with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, and a completion percentage of 61.2%.
  • In nine games, Dawson Pendergrass has rushed for 295 yards (32.8 per game) and five TDs.
  • Pendergrass also has 17 receptions for 162 yards and two TDs.
  • In the passing game, Monaray Baldwin has scored four TDs, hauling in 35 balls for 592 yards (65.8 per game).
  • In the passing game, Drake Dabney has scored five TDs, hauling in 27 balls for 452 yards (45.2 per game).
  • Matt Jones has posted 53 tackles, six TFL, three sacks, and two passes defended in nine games for the Bears.
  • The Bears’ Devyn Bobby has amassed one TFL, 44 tackles, and one interception in eight games.
  • Caden Jenkins has been doing his part on defense, collecting one TFL, 14 tackles, and three interceptions for the Bears.
  • Byron Vaughns has posted three sacks to go with three TFL and 20 tackles in nine games for the Bears.

TCU vs. Baylor Predictions and Pick

TCU vs. Baylor betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    TCU (-14)

  • Pick OU: Under (61)

How to Bet on TCU vs. Baylor

You can bet on TCU vs. Baylor at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s TCU vs. Baylor picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this game is TCU, and we expect that TCU will cover the spread (TCU -14). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 61 points.

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Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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