SMU vs. South Florida Prediction: Picks & Start Time – November 2022

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AAC foes will do battle when the SMU Mustangs (5-4) meet the South Florida Bulls (1-8) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

SMU vs. South Florida Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 17.5 points, with sportsbooks listing SMU as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, SMU has -906 odds to pick up the win, while South Florida is listed at +578 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 72.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch SMU vs. South Florida Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, November 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Stadium: Raymond James Stadium

Betting Preview

SMU

SMU sports the 18th-best offense this season in terms of total yards (479.0 yards per game), but rank 11th-worst on defense (453.4 yards allowed per game). While SMU ranks 13th-worst in the FBS in scoring defense with 33.7 points allowed per game, the team has been better with the ball, ranking 10th-best in the FBS in scoring (40.2 points per game). SMU sports the 99th-ranked defense this season in terms of passing yards (253.8 allowed per game), and has been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking fifth-best with 331.0 passing yards per game. With 199.7 rushing yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks 14th-worst in the FBS, SMU has had to ask their 70th-ranked running game (148.0 rushing yards per contest) to keep them in games. SMU is putting up a 45.6% third-down percentage on offense (32nd in the FBS), and ranks 45th defensively with a 36.3% third-down percentage allowed. SMU has forced 14 total turnovers (50th in the FBS) this season and have turned it over 14 times (75th in the FBS) for an even turnover margin, 100th-ranked in college football.

South Florida

South Florida has been struggling on defense, ranking second-worst with 503.1 total yards surrendered per game. It has been better on offense, putting up 374.7 total yards per contest (83rd-ranked). South Florida has been sputtering on defense, ranking third-worst with 39.9 points allowed per game. It has been more effective offensively, regstering 25.8 points per contest (85th-ranked). South Florida has been outplayed on both sides of the ball in terms of passing this season, ranking 24th-worst in passing yards (192.6 per game) and eighth-worst in passing yards surrendered (288.9 per game). South Florida ranks 45th in rushing yards per game (182.1), but it has been less effective on the other side of the ball, ranking ninth-worst in the FBS with 214.2 rushing yards surrendered per contest. South Florida’s defense has been a bottom-25 unit on third down this season, ceding a 45.4% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks 13th-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 76th with a 45.4% third-down rate. At -2, South Florida has the 100th-ranked turnover margin in the FBS, with 12 forced turnovers (78th in the FBS) and 14 turnovers committed (75th in the FBS).

SMU vs. South Florida Betting Analysis

SMU Betting Insights

SMU is 4-5-0 against the spread this season. SMU has yet to cover a spread when they are at least 17.5-point favorites (0-1). SMU games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this season. The Mustangs have been listed as the moneyline favorite a total of four times this season, and they’ve won each of those games. The Mustangs have yet to play as a moneyline favorite of -906 or shorter.

Bulls Betting Insights

South Florida is 3-6-0 against the spread this season. In games this season when an underdog by 17.5 points or more, South Florida has gone 3-0 against the spread. Games involving South Florida have hit the over on seven occasions this year. The Bulls have been listed as the underdog seven times this season and have failed to win any of those games. This season, the Bulls have won one of their three games when they’re the underdog by at least +578 on the moneyline.

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SMU vs. South Florida Against The Spread & Betting Records

SMU

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 65.3 63.9 67.1
Implied Total AVG 37.9 39.4 36.0
ATS Record 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 4-5-0 3-2-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-0 2-0 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-4 0-2 0-2

Bulls

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 57.5 57.4 57.6
Implied Total AVG 37.6 37.8 37.4
ATS Record 3-6-0 0-4-0 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 7-2-0 4-0-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-0 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-7 0-3 0-4

Players to Watch

SMU

  • Nelson Paul has helped lead the Mustangs’ defense with 34 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and five sacks in nine games.
  • The Mustangs’ defensive unit has been aided by the contributions of Nick Roberts, who has suited up for nine games and registered 38 tackles and three interceptions.
  • Jimmy Phillips Jr. has helped carry the Mustangs’ defense with 42 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack in nine games.
  • Shanon Reid has been a key part of the Mustangs’ defensive unit in 2022, with one interception to go with 33 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one pass defended in nine games.

Bulls

  • In nine games for the Bulls, Dwayne Boyles has totaled 1.0 sack to go with 5.0 TFL, 44 tackles, and one interception.
  • In nine games for the Bulls, Jason Vaughn has totaled 13 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and five sacks.
  • Jatorian Hansford has 2.5 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and 13 tackles in nine games.
  • Timarcus Simpson has collected 1.0 TFL and 25 tackles in nine games for the Bulls.

SMU vs. South Florida Predictions and Pick

SMU vs. South Florida betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Mustangs (-17.5)

    Pick OU:

    Under (72.5)

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How to Bet on SMU vs. South Florida

You can bet on SMU vs. South Florida at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s SMU vs. South Florida picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this matchup is SMU, and we expect that SMU will cover the spread (SMU -17.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 72.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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