SMU vs. Navy Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiassetlla8scIsmu mustangs vs navy midshipmen Betsperts Media & Technology

The SMU Mustangs (2-3) face an AAC matchup versus the Navy Midshipmen (2-3).

SMU vs. Navy Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 12.5 points, with sportsbooks listing SMU as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, SMU has -483 odds to pick up the win, while Navy is listed at +357 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 58 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch SMU vs. Navy Live?

  • Game Day: Friday, October 14, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: University Park, Texas
  • Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Betting Preview


On the offensive side of the ball, SMU has been a top-25 unit, ranking ninth-best in the FBS by putting up 500.2 yards per game. The defense ranks 102nd (416.8 yards allowed per game). SMU ranks 35th in scoring offense (34.6 points per game) and 82nd in scoring defense (28.6 points allowed per game) this season. SMU has the 83rd-ranked defense this season in terms of passing yards (240.4 allowed per game), and has been more effective on offense, ranking fourth-best with 355.0 passing yards per game. SMU is averaging 145.2 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 79th in the FBS. The team’s defensive unit ranks 103rd, allowing 176.4 rushing yards per game. SMU ranks 31st in third-down efficiency (46.3%) on offense and 28th in third-down percentage allowed (31.5%) on defense this year. SMU has the 100th-ranked turnover margin in college football at -5, forcing seven turnovers (85th in the FBS) while turning it over 12 times (110th in the FBS).


Navy is compiling 341.8 total yards per game on offense this season (105th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is allowing 348.6 total yards per contest (44th-ranked). Navy has been struggling offensively, ranking 22nd-worst in the FBS with 21.2 points per game. It has been better defensively, surrendering 21.0 points per contest (39th-ranked). Navy ranks fifth-worst in passing yards per game (110.0), but it has been more effective defensively, ranking 104th in the FBS with 262.2 passing yards allowed per contest. Things have been going well for Navy on both offense and defense, as it is posting 231.8 rushing yards per game (12th-best) and surrendering only 86.4 rushing yards per game (10th-best). From an offensive perspective, Navy is putting up a 40.0% third-down conversion percentage (63rd-ranked). It ranks 63rd in the FBS defensively (37.5% third-down rate allowed). With nine forced turnovers (53rd in the FBS) and eight turnovers committed (55th in the FBS) this season, Navy ranks 53rd in the FBS with a turnover margin of +1.

SMU vs. Navy Betting Analysis

SMU Betting Insights

SMU is 1-4-0 against the spread this season. SMU has not covered the spread (0-1) when playing as at least 12.5-point favorites. Games involving SMU have hit the over once this season. The Mustangs have been the moneyline favorite only one other time so far this season, a game they won. The Mustangs have yet to play a game with moneyline odds of -483 or shorter.

Midshipmen Betting Insights

Navy has gone 3-2-0 against the spread this year. Navy has a perfect 2-0 ATS record when playing as at least 12.5-point underdogs. Navy games have gone over the total twice this season. The Midshipmen have won two of the four games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Midshipmen have a record of 1-0 in games where oddsmakers have them as underdogs of at least +357 on the moneyline.

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SMU vs. Navy Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 68.1 67.8 68.3
Implied Total AVG 41.0 47.0 37.0
ATS Record 1-4-0 0-2-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 1-4-0 1-1-0 0-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 0-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.8 47.5 43.3
Implied Total AVG 27.8 27.0 29.0
ATS Record 3-2-0 1-2-0 2-0-0
Over/Under Record 2-3-0 2-1-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 1-1 1-1

Players to Watch


  • Nelson Paul has helped spur the Mustangs’ defense with 23 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks in five games.
  • As part of the Mustangs’ defense, Jimmy Phillips Jr. has posted 1.0 TFL and 26 tackles in five games.
  • As part of the Mustangs’ defense, Elijah Chatman has posted 10 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and three sacks in five games.
  • With 15 tackles and one interception, Nick Roberts has helped lead the Mustangs’ defense over five games.


  • In five games for the Midshipmen, Jacob Busic has posted 4.0 sacks to go with 2.0 TFL and 11 tackles.
  • The Midshipmen’s John Marshall has compiled 2.0 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and 24 tackles in five games.
  • The Midshipmen’s Colin Ramos has collected one interception to go with 19 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and one pass defended in five games.
  • Eavan Gibbons has totaled 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL and 10 tackles in five games for the Midshipmen.

SMU vs. Navy Predictions and Pick

SMU vs. Navy betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Midshipmen (+12.5)

    Pick OU:

    Under (58)

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How to Bet on SMU vs. Navy

You can bet on SMU vs. Navy at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s SMU vs. Navy picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this game is SMU, and we predict that Navy will cover the spread (SMU -12.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 58 points.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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