North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1) and the Duke Blue Devils (4-2) square off to try to take home the Victory Bell.

North Carolina vs. Duke Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 7 points, with sportsbooks listing North Carolina as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, North Carolina has -270 odds to pick up the win, while Duke is listed at +215 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 69 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch North Carolina vs. Duke Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, October 15, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ACC Network
  • Location: Wilmington, North Carolina
  • Stadium: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium

Betting Preview

North Carolina

While North Carolina ranks ninth-worst in the FBS in total defense with 465.3 yards allowed per game, it’s been a different story on the other side of the ball, as the Tar Heels rank ninth-best in the FBS (501.0 yards per game). North Carolina sports the eighth-best offense this season in terms of points scored (42.3 points per game), but ranks 24th-worst defensively (32.0 points allowed per game). North Carolina has struggled on defense against the pass, ranking eighth-worst in the FBS (297.5 passing yards allowed per game) this season. However, the Tar Heels rank 13th-best on the other side of the ball, averaging 317.8 passing yards per game. From an offensive standpoint, North Carolina ranks 43rd in the FBS with 183.2 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the defensive unit ranks 95th in rushing yards allowed per contest (167.8). North Carolina ranks 96th in third-down defense this season (42.5% third-down conversion rate allowed), but has been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking 13th-best in the FBS with a 50.0% third-down percentage. North Carolina has the 100th-ranked turnover margin in college football at even, forcing seven turnovers (86th in the FBS) while turning it over seven times (43rd in the FBS).


In terms of total offense, Duke ranks 59th in the FBS (416.5 total yards per game) and 71st on defense (379.8 total yards allowed per contest). Duke ranks 48th in the FBS with 32.5 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 33rd with 19.7 points given up per contest on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of passing, Duke ranks 86th in the FBS (225.8 passing yards per game) and 84th on the other side of the ball (240.7 passing yards allowed per contest). In terms of rushing, Duke ranks 35th in the FBS on offense (190.7 rushing yards per game) and 63rd on the other side of the ball (139.2 rushing yards allowed per game). Duke’s defense has been bottom-25 on third down this season, allowing a 44.0% third-down conversion rate, which ranks 19th-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 60th with a 44.0% third-down rate. Duke has a top-25 turnover margin this season, ranking 10th-best at +7.

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Analysis

North Carolina Betting Insights

North Carolina has covered the spread three times in six games with a set spread. In games it has played as 7-point favorites or more, North Carolina has an ATS record of 1-1-1. This season, three North Carolina games have gone over the point total. The Tar Heels have been favored on the moneyline three total times this season. They’ve finished 2-1 in those games. The Tar Heels have played as a moneyline favorite of -270 or shorter in just one game this season, which they won.

Blue Devils Betting Insights

Duke has covered the spread three times this year (3-3-0). Duke is 1-1 ATS when playing as at least 7-point underdogs. Games involving Duke have hit the over twice this season. The Blue Devils have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season. This season, the Blue Devils have won two of their three games when they’re the underdog by at least +215 on the moneyline.

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North Carolina vs. Duke Against The Spread & Betting Records

North Carolina

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 59.5 56.3 62.7
Implied Total AVG 36.0 38.0 34.0
ATS Record 3-2-1 1-2-0 2-0-1
Over/Under Record 3-3-0 2-1-0 1-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 1-1 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-0 0-0 2-0

Blue Devils

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 55.9 53.3 58.5
Implied Total AVG 33.5 34.0 33.0
ATS Record 3-3-0 2-1-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 2-4-0 2-1-0 0-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 2-0 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Players to Watch

North Carolina

  • Power Echols has suited up for six games, registering 2.0 sacks to go with 4.0 TFL and 40 tackles for the Tar Heels.
  • Cedric Gray has played six games, totaling two interceptions to go along with 37 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and two passes defended for the Tar Heels.
  • As part of the Tar Heels’ defensive unit, Noah Taylor has compiled 14 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 3.5 sacks in six games.
  • The Tar Heels’ defensive unit has been helped by the play of DeAndre Boykins, who has suited up for six games, delivering 1.0 sack to go with 2.0 TFL, 17 tackles, and one interception.

Blue Devils

  • In six games for the Blue Devils, DeWayne Carter has posted 1.5 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and 13 tackles.
  • The Blue Devils’ Jaylen Stinson has totaled 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL and 18 tackles in six games.
  • Brandon Johnson has 1.0 sack to go with 1.0 TFL, nine tackles, and one interception in six games.
  • Ja’Mion Franklin has posted nine tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.5 sacks In six games for the Blue Devils.

North Carolina vs. Duke Predictions and Pick

North Carolina vs. Duke betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Blue Devils (+7)

    Pick OU:

    Under (69)

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How to Bet on North Carolina vs. Duke

You can bet on North Carolina vs. Duke at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s North Carolina vs. Duke picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this game is Duke, and we project that Duke will cover the spread (North Carolina -7). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 69 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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