Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

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SEC opponents will do battle when the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1) meet the No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (4-2) at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Mississippi State as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Mississippi State has -174 odds to pick up the win, while Kentucky is listed at +138 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 50.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, October 15, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky
  • Stadium: Kroger Field

Betting Preview

Mississippi State

Offensively, Mississippi State ranks 28th in the FBS with 461.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, its defense ranks 53rd in total defense (357.8 yards allowed per contest). On offense, Mississippi State has been a top-25 unit, ranking 24th-best in the FBS by putting up 38.5 points per game. The Bulldogs rank 37th on defense (21.0 points allowed per game). Mississippi State ranks 58th in pass defense this year (219.5 passing yards allowed per game), but has been playing really well on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in the FBS with 354.7 passing yards per game. Mississippi State ranks 17th-worst in rushing offense (106.7 rushing yards per game), but has been better on defense, ranking 60th with 138.3 rushing yards allowed per game. Mississippi State is averaging a 44.6% third-down percentage on offense (43rd in the FBS), and ranks 36th defensively with a 33.3% third-down conversion rate allowed. Mississippi State has the 24th-best turnover margin in college football at +4, forcing 12 turnovers (13th in the FBS) while turning it over eight times (53rd in the FBS).

Kentucky

Kentucky has been dominant on defense, surrendering only 307.2 total yards per game (19th-best). Offensively, it ranks 99th by putting up 356.3 total yards per game. Kentucky’s defense has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 17th-best in the FBS with 16.3 points allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is generating 26.3 points per game, which ranks 87th. Kentucky’s pass defense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks 15th-best in the FBS with 174.2 passing yards allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 263.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 45th. Kentucky ranks ninth-worst in rushing yards per game (92.5), but it has been more effective on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 52nd in the FBS with 133.0 rushing yards surrendered per contest. From an offensive standpoint, Kentucky is generating a 43.2% third-down conversion percentage (50th-ranked). It ranks 26th in the FBS on the other side of the ball (31.3% third-down rate allowed). Kentucky has a -3 turnover margin this season, which ranks 100th in the FBS.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis

Mississippi State Betting Insights

Mississippi State has covered the spread four times over six games with a set spread. In games this season when favored by 3.5 points or more, Mississippi State are 4-0-1 against the spread. Games involving Mississippi State have hit the over four times this season. The Bulldogs have won five of the six games they were favored on the moneyline this season (83.3%). The Bulldogs have played five times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -174 or shorter, and won in each game.

Wildcats Betting Insights

Kentucky is 4-2-0 against the spread this year. Kentucky is a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs. Games involving Kentucky has hit the over once this season. The Wildcats have split the two games they’ve played as underdogs this season. This season, the Wildcats have won one of their two games when they’re the underdog by at least +138 on the moneyline.

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Against The Spread & Betting Records

Mississippi State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.7 52.8 55.5
Implied Total AVG 33.3 34.3 31.5
ATS Record 4-1-1 3-0-1 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 4-2-0 4-0-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-1 4-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Wildcats

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 51.6 50.6 53.5
Implied Total AVG 33.3 35.0 30.0
ATS Record 4-2-0 2-2-0 2-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-5-0 1-3-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 3-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Players to Watch

Mississippi State

  • The Bulldogs’ defensive unit has been aided by the play of Nathaniel Watson, who has suited up for six games and posted 29 tackles, 3.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception.
  • Tyrus Wheat has hit the gridiron for six games, delivering 17 tackles, 2.0 TFL, two sacks, and one pass defended for the Bulldogs.
  • With 33 tackles and 1.0 TFL in six games, Jett Johnson has been an important piece of the Bulldogs’ defensive unit in 2022.
  • The Bulldogs’ defensive unit has been helped by Emmanuel Forbes, who has suited up for six games, registering 10 tackles and four interceptions.

Wildcats

  • In six games for the Wildcats, DeAndre Square has registered 1.0 sack to go with 2.0 TFL and 30 tackles.
  • In six games for the Wildcats, Jordan Wright has posted one interception to go with 15 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and one pass defended.
  • In six games for the Wildcats, J.J. Weaver has totaled 17 tackles and one sack.
  • On defense, Tyrell Ajian has racked up 13 tackles and one sack in six games.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Predictions and Pick

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Bulldogs (-3.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (50.5)

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How to Bet on Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

You can bet on Mississippi State vs. Kentucky at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Mississippi State vs. Kentucky picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this contest is Mississippi State, and we predict that Mississippi State will cover the spread (Mississippi State -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 50.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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