Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction: Picks & Start Time – October 2022

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SEC foes will clash when the No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1) meet the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2).

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9 points, with bookmakers listing Mississippi State as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Mississippi State has -345 odds to pick up the win, while Arkansas is listed at +266 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 57.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, October 8, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Starkville, Mississippi
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

Betting Preview

Mississippi State

Mississippi State is averaging 440.0 yards per game on offense, which ranks 45th in the FBS. On defense, the Bulldogs rank 35th, giving up 332.8 yards per contest. Mississippi State ranks 45th in scoring defense this year (21.8 points allowed per game), but has been shining on offense, ranking 23rd-best in the FBS with 38.2 points per game. Mississippi State ranks 56th in pass defense this year (215.0 passing yards allowed per game), but has been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking seventh-best in the FBS with 346.6 passing yards per game. Mississippi State ranks 12th-worst in rushing offense (93.4 rushing yards per game), but has played better on defense, ranking 41st with 117.8 rushing yards allowed per contest. Mississippi State ranks 34th in third-down percentage this year (45.9%), but has been thriving on defense, ranking 22nd-best in the FBS with a 29.0% third-down percentage allowed. With 10 forced turnovers (20th in the FBS) against eight turnovers committed (77th in the FBS), Mississippi State’s +2+2 turnover margin ranks 40th in college football.


Arkansas ranks 31st in total yards per game (458.6), but it has been less productive on the other side of the ball, ranking 21st-worst in the FBS with 431.8 total yards conceded per contest. From an offensive standpoint, Arkansas is posting 32.0 points per game (63rd-ranked). It ranks 100th in the FBS defensively (30.6 points given up per game). Arkansas’ defense has been a bottom-25 unit in pass defense this season, surrendering 289.4 passing yards per game, which ranks eighth-worst in the FBS. Offensively, it ranks 84th with 226.2 passing yards per contest. Arkansas’ rushing attack has been leading the way for the team, as it ranks ninth-best in the FBS with 232.4 rushing yards per game. In terms of defense, it is ceding 142.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 70th. Arkansas has been struggling on third down, ranking 23rd-worst with a 44.3% third-down conversion percentage allowed per game. It has been more effective on offense, regstering a 42.9% third-down rate (51st-ranked). After forcing six turnovers (82nd in the FBS) and turning the ball over six times (46th in the FBS) this season, Arkansas has the 100th-ranked turnover margin of 0.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis

Mississippi State Betting Insights

Mississippi State is 3-1-1 against the spread this season. Mississippi State is 2-0-1 ATS when playing as at least 9-point favorites. Mississippi State games have gone over the total three times this season. The Bulldogs have won four of the five games they were the moneyline favorite this season (80%). The Bulldogs have played in three games as a moneyline favorite with odds of -345 or shorter and won every time.

Razorbacks Betting Insights

Arkansas has registered a win-loss record of 2-3-0 against the spread this season. Arkansas has not covered the spread (0-1) when it is at least 9-point underdogs. Arkansas’ games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under four times this season. The Razorbacks have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Razorbacks have played as an underdog of +266 or more once this season and lost that game.

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Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Against The Spread & Betting Records

Mississippi State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.3 51.8 55.5
Implied Total AVG 33.6 35.0 31.5
ATS Record 3-1-1 2-0-1 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 3-2-0 3-0-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-1 3-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 56.4 57.8 51.0
Implied Total AVG 34.4 36.5 26.0
ATS Record 2-3-0 2-2-0 0-1-0
Over/Under Record 4-1-0 4-0-0 0-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-0 3-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1

Players to Watch

Mississippi State

  • Nathaniel Watson has helped carry the Bulldogs’ defense with 29 tackles, 3.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception in five games.
  • Jett Johnson has helped lead the Bulldogs’ defense with 1.0 TFL and 33 tackles in five games.
  • Collin Duncan has hit the gridiron for five games, recording 13 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two sacks for the Bulldogs.
  • Tyrus Wheat has been an important part of the Bulldogs’ defense in 2022, with 16 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and one pass defended in five games.


  • As a tone-setter on defense, the Razorbacks’ Drew Sanders has totaled 42 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and seven sacks in five games.
  • Bumper Pool has amassed 45 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack in five games for the Razorbacks.
  • Jordan Domineck has recorded 4.0 sacks to go with 2.0 TFL and 15 tackles in five games for the Razorbacks.
  • Simeon Blair has recorded 1.0 TFL and 31 tackles in five games for the Razorbacks.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Predictions and Pick

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Bulldogs (-9)

    Pick OU:

    Over (57.5)

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How to Bet on Mississippi State vs. Arkansas

You can bet on Mississippi State vs. Arkansas at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Mississippi State vs. Arkansas picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this contest is Mississippi State, and we project that Mississippi State will cover the spread (Mississippi State -9). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 57.5 points.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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