Michigan vs. TCU CFP Semifinal At The Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 31, 2022

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The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) and No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) will battle in the Fiesta Bowl for a spot in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Michigan vs. TCU Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 8 points, with sportsbooks listing Michigan as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Michigan has -338 odds to pick up the win, while TCU is listed at +258 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 56.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Michigan vs. TCU Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 31, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Glendale, Arizona
  • Stadium: State Farm Stadium

Betting Preview


On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan has been a top-25 unit, ranking third-best by surrendering just 277.1 yards per game. The offense ranks 27th (453.5 yards per game). Michigan has been finding success on both offense and defense, ranking sixth-best in scoring offense (40.1 points per game) and third-best in scoring defense (13.4 points allowed per game). Michigan ranks 90th in passing yards this season (210.5 per game), but has been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking 23rd-best in the FBS with 191.8 passing yards allowed per game. Michigan has been surging on both sides of the ball in the running game, ranking fourth-best in rushing offense (243.0 rushing yards per game) and third-best in rushing defense (85.2 rushing yards allowed per game). Michigan has been making things happen on both sides of the ball on third down this season, owning the 17th-best mark in third-down percentage (46.8%) and 19th-best in third-down defense (32.4% third-down conversion rate allowed). Michigan has forced 14 total turnovers (90th in the FBS) this season and have turned it over seven times (second in the FBS) for a turnover margin of +7, the 21st-best in college football.

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TCU’s offense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks 14th-best in the FBS with 473.0 total yards per game. In terms of defense, it is giving up 385.1 total yards per game, which ranks 75th. TCU’s offense has been dominant, racking up 40.3 points per game (fifth-best) this season. Defensively, it ranks 56th by allowing 25.0 points per game. TCU’s pass offense has been consistently moving the chains, posting 273.0 passing yards per game (25th-best) this season. On defense, it ranks 83rd by allowing 235.6 passing yards per game. TCU’s run defense ranks 68th in the FBS with 149.5 rushing yards surrendered per contest, but it has been led by its offense, which ranks 24th-best by accumulating 200.0 rushing yards per game. With a 40.2% third-down conversion percentage on offense, TCU ranks 53rd in the FBS. Defensively, it ranks 35th, surrendering a 35.2% third-down rate. TCU has fared really well in terms of turnovers, as its turnover margin of +9 ranks 13th-best in the FBS, with 19 forced turnovers (38th in the nation) and 10 turnovers committed (eighth in the nation).

Michigan vs. TCU Betting Analysis

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Michigan Betting Insights

Michigan has covered the spread in a game eight times this season (8-5-0). Michigan is 6-5 ATS when playing as at least 8-point favorites. This season, Michigan games have hit the over four times. The Wolverines have been favored on the moneyline a total of 10 times this season, and they’ve won each of those games. The Wolverines have played nine times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -338 or shorter, and claimed a victory in each game.

Horned Frogs Betting Insights

TCU has gone 9-3-1 against the spread this season. TCU games have gone over the total seven times this year. The Horned Frogs have won two of the three games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Horned Frogs have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +258 moneyline set for this game.

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Michigan vs. TCU Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.9 55.6 50.1
Implied Total AVG 39.0 41.2 34.0
ATS Record 8-5-0 5-4-0 3-1-0
Over/Under Record 4-8-1 2-6-1 2-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-0 8-0 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-0 0-0 1-0

Horned Frogs

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 63.8 62.2 65.6
Implied Total AVG 36.5 36.4 36.5
ATS Record 9-3-1 5-2-0 4-1-1
Over/Under Record 7-6-0 5-2-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-0 5-0 5-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-1 1-0

Players to Watch


  • As part of the Wolverines’ defense, Michael Barrett has recorded 73 tackles, three TFL, three sacks, and two interceptions in 12 games.
  • Junior Colson has helped spur the Wolverines’ defense with two sacks to go along with four TFL and 90 tackles in 12 games.
  • Rod Moore has helped lead the Wolverines’ defense with three interceptions to go along with 57 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended in 11 games.
  • Mike Sainristil has been a big part of the Wolverines’ defense in 2022, with 48 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, and seven passes defended in 12 games.

Horned Frogs

  • Dee Winters has delivered 65 tackles, 10 TFL, seven sacks, and one pass defended in 13 games for the Horned Frogs.
  • Jamoi Hodge has been doing his part on defense, collecting one interception to go with 70 tackles, six TFL, four sacks, and two passes defended for the Horned Frogs.
  • The Horned Frogs’ Mark Perry has amassed 74 tackles, five TFL, and two passes defended in 13 games.
  • Johnny Hodges has collected 76 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and one pass defended In 12 games for the Horned Frogs.

Michigan vs. TCU Predictions and Pick

Michigan vs. TCU betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Horned Frogs (+8)

    Pick OU:

    Over (56.5)

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How to Bet on Michigan vs. TCU

You can bet on Michigan vs. TCU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Michigan vs. TCU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this matchup is Michigan, and we expect that TCU will cover the spread (Michigan -8). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 56.5 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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