LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Picks & Start Time – September 16, 2023

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The No. 14 LSU Tigers (1-1) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) will face each other in clash of SEC rivals at Davis Wade Stadium in Mississippi State, Mississippi.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with oddsmakers listing LSU as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, LSU has -363 odds to pick up the win, while Mississippi State is listed at +275 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 54 points.

Game Info

How to Watch LSU vs. Mississippi State Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, September 16, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Mississippi State, Mississippi
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
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Betting Preview


LSU averaged 11.4 more points per game (34.5) than Mississippi State gave up (23.1) last season. LSU was 7-0 against the spread and 7-0 overall last season when the team recorded more than 23.1 points. Mississippi State had a 6-4 record against the spread and an 8-3 record overall in games when it gave up fewer than 34.5 points last year. LSU collected 453.1 yards per game last year, 107.6 more yards than the 345.5 Mississippi State allowed per contest.

Mississippi State

Last year Mississippi State scored 9.1 more points per game (31.6) than LSU surrendered (22.5). Mississippi State was 6-1 against the spread and 8-0 overall last season when the team scored more than 22.5 points. Last season LSU had a 6-3 record against the spread and an 8-1 record overall in games when it held opponents to fewer than 31.6 points. Mississippi State collected 38.3 more yards per game (392.9) than LSU gave up per outing (354.6) last season.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Betting Analysis

LSU Betting Insights

LSU has covered the spread one time this season (1-1-0). LSU has a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites. Games involving the LSU have hit the over twice this season. The Tigers have been listed as the moneyline favorite only one other time so far this season, a game they lost. The Tigers have not yet played as a moneyline favorite of -363 or shorter.

Mississippi State Betting Insights

Mississippi State has put together a record of 1-1-0 against the spread this season. Mississippi State games have yet to go over the total once this year. The Bulldogs have not played a game this season while listed as the underdog. The Bulldogs have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +275 moneyline set for this game.

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LSU vs. Mississippi State Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.5 55.3 51.7
Implied Total AVG 32.1 33.3 30.8
ATS Record 7-5-0 5-1-0 2-4-0
Over/Under Record 7-5-0 3-3-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-1 3-0 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-2 2-1 1-1

Mississippi State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 54.7 54.0 55.4
Implied Total AVG 34.2 36.4 31.5
ATS Record 7-5-1 4-2-1 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 7-6-0 7-0-0 0-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-2 5-0 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-1 1-1

Last Season’s Leaders


  • Jayden Daniels passed for 2,913 yards (208.1 per game), completing 68.6% of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions in 14 games last year.
  • In addition, Daniels rushed for 885 yards and 11 TDs.
  • In the passing game, Malik Nabers scored three TDs, catching 72 balls for 1,009 yards (72.1 per game).
  • On the ground, Noah Cain scored 10 touchdowns a season ago and picked up 405 yards (33.8 per game).
  • In 11 games, Josh Williams ran for 536 yards (48.7 per game) and six TDs.
  • Williams also had 21 receptions for 132 yards and zero TDs.
  • Harold Perkins had one interception to go with 67 tackles, 10 TFL, seven sacks, and four passes defended last year.
  • On defense in 2022, Micah Baskerville had 79 tackles, four TFL, one sack, and one interception in 12 games played.
  • In 12 games a season ago, Greg Penn III compiled 72 tackles and five TFL.
  • Greg Brooks Jr. posted 57 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and two interceptions in 13 games played in 2022.

Mississippi State

  • Will Rogers last year racked up 3,963 passing yards with 35 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 67.9% completion percentage.
  • As part of the running game, Jo’quavious Marks rushed for 582 yards and nine touchdowns on 5.2 YPC.
  • As a pass-catcher, Marks contributed 48 catches (on zero targets) for 288 yards and zero touchdowns.
  • In 12 games last year, Rara Thomas turned zero targets into 44 receptions, 626 yards and seven touchdowns.
  • In 10 games last season, Dillon Johnson put up 499 rushing yards (5.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.
  • The pass-catching skills of Johnson led to 47 catches (on zero targets) for 274 yards and zero touchdowns.
  • Nathaniel Watson hit the gridiron for 12 games, totaling five sacks to go with eight TFL, 101 tackles, and one interception.
  • Jett Johnson, who was on the field for 12 games, totaled two sacks to go with four TFL and 105 tackles.
  • In 11 games, Emmanuel Forbes compiled 43 tackles and six interceptions.
  • With 74 tackles, Decamerion Richardson made a big difference on D.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Predictions and Pick

LSU vs. Mississippi State betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    Mississippi State (+9.5)

  • Pick OU: Over (54)

How to Bet on LSU vs. Mississippi State

You can bet on LSU vs. Mississippi State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this matchup is Mississippi State, and we predict that Mississippi State will cover the spread (LSU -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 54 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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