SMU vs. BYU New Mexico Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 17, 2022

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The SMU Mustangs will play the BYU Cougars in the New Mexico Bowl.

SMU vs. BYU Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing SMU as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, SMU has -194 odds to pick up the win, while BYU is listed at +153 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 64.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch SMU vs. BYU Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
  • Stadium: Dreamstyle Stadium

Betting Preview

SMU

While SMU ranks 14th-worst in the FBS in total defense with 446.2 yards allowed per game, it’s been a different story offensively, as the Mustangs rank 11th-best in the FBS (479.7 yards per game). SMU has struggled defensively, ranking ninth-worst in the FBS (34.7 points allowed per game) this season. However, the defensive unit ranks 12th-best on offense, totaling 38.4 points per game. SMU owns the 92nd-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (242.8 allowed per game), and has been more effective offensively, ranking sixth-best with 324.9 passing yards per game. Despite having a bottom-25 run defense that ranks 11th-worst in the FBS (203.3 rushing yards allowed per game), SMU has put up better results offensively, ranking 65th in the FBS by averaging 154.8 rushing yards per game. SMU owns the 59th-ranked defense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (37.3% third-down conversion rate allowed), and has been better on offense, ranking 17th-best with a 47.0% third-down conversion rate. With 15 forced turnovers (71st in the FBS) against 18 turnovers committed (86th in the FBS), SMU’s -3-3 turnover margin ranks 100th in college football.

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BYU

With 440.3 total yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, BYU ranks 32nd in the FBS in 2022. On defense, it ranks 95th, giving up 408.6 total yards per game. In terms of points scored BYU ranks 40th in the FBS (31.9 points per game), and it is 100th on defense (30.0 points allowed per game). In terms of passing, BYU ranks 31st in the FBS (266.6 passing yards per game) and 84th on the other side of the ball (235.8 passing yards allowed per game). With 173.7 rushing yards per game on offense, BYU ranks 50th in the FBS. On defense it ranks 97th, giving up 172.8 rushing yards per contest. BYU has been struggling on third down, ranking 13th-worst with a 45.0% third-down conversion rate allowed per game. It has been more effective on offense, posting a 45.5% third-down rate (26th-ranked). After forcing 11 turnovers (118th in the FBS) and turning the ball over nine times (sixth in the FBS) this season, BYU sports the 48th-ranked turnover margin of +2.

SMU vs. BYU Betting Analysis

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SMU Betting Insights

SMU is 5-7-0 against the spread this season. SMU is 2-3 ATS when playing as at least 4.5-point favorites. This season, SMU games have hit the over five times. The Mustangs have been favored on the moneyline a total of six times this season, and they’ve won all of those games. The Mustangs have played four times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -194 or shorter, and claimed a victory in each game.

Cougars Betting Insights

BYU is 4-8-0 against the spread this year. In games it has played as 4.5-point underdogs or more, BYU has a perfect ATS record of 1-0. This year, eight BYU games have gone over the point total. This season, the Cougars have been the underdog three times and won one of those games. The Cougars have entered two games this season as the underdog by +153 or more and won each of those games.

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SMU vs. BYU Against The Spread & Betting Records

SMU

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 66.3 64.8 67.7
Implied Total AVG 38.1 39.0 37.2
ATS Record 5-7-0 2-4-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 5-7-0 3-3-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-0 3-0 3-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-5 0-2 0-3

Cougars

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 58.0 58.4 57.3
Implied Total AVG 34.8 36.3 32.6
ATS Record 4-8-0 1-6-0 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 8-4-0 4-3-0 4-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-3 3-2 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-1 1-1

Players to Watch

SMU

  • With one sack to go with seven TFL and 75 tackles in 10 games, Jimmy Phillips Jr. has been an important contributor to the Mustangs’ defensive unit in 2022.
  • Nick Roberts has helped carry the Mustangs’ defense with one TFL, 57 tackles, and three interceptions in 11 games.
  • Nelson Paul has hit the gridiron for 11 games, registering 36 tackles, nine TFL, and five sacks for the Mustangs.
  • A big contributor to the Mustangs’ defensive unit, Isaac Slade-Matautia has one interception to go with 51 tackles, three TFL, two sacks, and two passes defended in 10 games.

Cougars

  • As a key defensive contributor, the Cougars’ Ben Bywater has collected 80 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and two interceptions in 12 games.
  • On defense, Max Tooley has helped lead the charge with 49 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and three interceptions in six games.
  • Keenan Pili has one sack to go with three TFL and 61 tackles in 11 games.
  • Micah Harper has recorded two TFL and 57 tackles in 10 games for the Cougars.

SMU vs. BYU Predictions and Pick

SMU vs. BYU betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Mustangs (-4.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (64.5)

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How to Bet on SMU vs. BYU

You can bet on SMU vs. BYU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s SMU vs. BYU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this contest is SMU, and we predict that SMU will cover the spread (SMU -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 64.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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