Boise State vs. Fresno State MWC Championship Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 3, 2022

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The MWC Championship Game is between the Boise State Broncos (9-3) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4).

Boise State vs. Fresno State Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing Boise State as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Boise State has -156 odds to pick up the win, while Fresno State is listed at +128 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 54.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Boise State vs. Fresno State Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 3, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Stadium: Albertsons Stadium

Betting Preview

Boise State

Boise State ranks 73rd in total offense this season (385.2 yards per game), but has been thriving on the defensive side of the ball, ranking seventh-best in the FBS with 385.2 yards allowed per game. Defensively, Boise State has been a top-25 unit, ranking ninth-best by allowing just 17.8 points per game. The offense ranks 56th (30.2 points per game). While Boise State ranks 23rd-worst in the FBS in passing offense with 194.8 passing yards per game, it’s been a different situation with the defense, which ranks third-best (158.8 passing yards per game allowed). From an offensive standpoint, Boise State ranks 37th in the FBS with 190.4 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the defensive unit ranks 32nd in rushing yards allowed per contest (125.7). On defense, Boise State has been a top-25 unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking sixth-best by allowing a 29.3% third-down conversion rate. The team’s offense ranks 50th (41.0% third-down percentage). With 17 forced turnovers (57th in the FBS) against 14 turnovers committed (31st in the FBS), Boise State (+3) has the 45th-ranked turnover margin in college football.

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Fresno State

From an offensive perspective, Fresno State is posting 407.6 total yards per contest (50th-ranked). It ranks 42nd in the FBS on the other side of the ball (353.2 total yards surrendered per game). Fresno State ranks 47th in the FBS with 30.9 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 26th with 20.8 points surrendered per game on defense. Things have been going well for Fresno State on both sides of the ball, as it is averaging 276.5 passing yards per game (24th-best) and ceding just 194.2 passing yards per game (24th-best). Fresno State ranks 94th in the FBS with 131.1 rushing yards per contest on offense, and it ranks 79th with 159.0 rushing yards ceded per game on defense. Fresno State’s third-down offense has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 17th-best in the FBS with a 46.7% third-down conversion percentage. In terms of defense, it is giving up a 38.6% third-down rate, which ranks 65th. After forcing 15 turnovers (85th in the FBS) and turning the ball over 14 times (31st in the FBS) this season, Fresno State sports the 65th-ranked turnover margin of +1.

Boise State vs. Fresno State Betting Analysis

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Boise State Betting Insights

Boise State has compiled a 6-5-1 record against the spread this season. Boise State is 5-4-1 ATS when playing as at least 3-point favorites. This season, six Boise State games have gone over the point total. The Broncos have an 8-2 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 80% of those games). The Broncos have an 7-0 record (winning 80% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -156 or shorter.

Bulldogs Betting Insights

Fresno State is 5-7-0 against the spread this year. In games they have played as 3-point underdogs or more, the Bulldogs have an ATS record of 1-2. Fresno State’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under seven times this year. This season, the Bulldogs have won one out of the four games in which they’ve been the underdog. This season, the Bulldogs have won two of their four games when they’re the underdog by at least +128 on the moneyline.

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Boise State vs. Fresno State Against The Spread & Betting Records

Boise State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.4 47.8 47.0
Implied Total AVG 30.6 31.7 29.5
ATS Record 6-5-1 4-2-0 2-3-1
Over/Under Record 6-6-0 5-1-0 1-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-2 5-1 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Bulldogs

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 54.1 54.1 54.2
Implied Total AVG 35.1 35.8 34.3
ATS Record 5-7-0 3-3-0 2-4-0
Over/Under Record 7-5-0 3-3-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-1 3-0 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-3 1-1 0-2

Players to Watch

Boise State

  • DJ Schramm has played 12 games, delivering 0.5 sacks to go with 7.0 TFL and 68 tackles for the Broncos.
  • Ezekiel Noa has suited up for 12 games, amassing one interception to go along with 33 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and one pass defended for the Broncos.
  • As part of the Broncos’ defense, JL Skinner has collected four interceptions to go along with 38 tackles and five passes defended in 12 games.
  • An important piece of the Broncos’ defense, George Tarlas has 28 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and three sacks in 12 games.

Bulldogs

  • In 12 games for the Bulldogs, David Perales has delivered 10.5 sacks to go with 9.0 TFL, 30 tackles, and one interception.
  • On defense, Levelle Bailey has helped lead the way with 43 tackles and 4.0 TFL in 12 games.
  • The Bulldogs’ Bralyn Lux has compiled one interception to go with 21 tackles, 2.0 TFL, two sacks, and one pass defended in 12 games.
  • With two interceptions to go with 35 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and two passes defended in 12 games, Malachi Langley has been doing his part on defense for the Bulldogs.

Boise State vs. Fresno State Predictions and Pick

Boise State vs. Fresno State betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Broncos (-3)

    Pick OU:

    Under (54.5)

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How to Bet on Boise State vs. Fresno State

You can bet on Boise State vs. Fresno State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Boise State vs. Fresno State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this contest is Boise State, and we project that Boise State will cover the spread (Boise State -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 54.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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