Baylor vs. Air Force Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Prediction: Picks & Start Time – December 22, 2022

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The Baylor Bears will meet the Air Force Falcons in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

Baylor vs. Air Force Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with bookmakers listing Baylor as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, Baylor has -168 odds to pick up the win, while Air Force is listed at +136 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Baylor vs. Air Force Live?

  • Game Day: Thursday, December 22, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Betting Preview


Baylor ranks 35th in total offense (429.2 yards per game) and 61st in total defense (370.3 yards allowed per game) this year. On offense, Baylor ranks 31st in the FBS with 33.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the team’s defense ranks 65th in points allowed (370.3 points allowed per contest). Baylor is averaging 235.1 passing yards per game on offense (60th in the FBS), and ranks 81st defensively with 232.8 passing yards allowed per game. Baylor is putting up 194.1 rushing yards per game on offense (34th in the FBS), and ranks 46th on the other side of the ball with 137.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Despite sporting a bottom-25 defense on third down that ranks 10th-worst in the FBS (45.3% third-down conversion rate), Baylor has put up better results offensively, ranking 35th in the FBS by posting a 42.9% third-down conversion rate. Baylor ranks 39th in college football with a +3 turnover margin after forcing 18 turnovers (42nd in the FBS) while committing 15 (43rd in the FBS).

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Air Force

Air Force’s defense has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks best in the FBS with 255.3 total yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 399.3 total yards per game, which ranks 57th. Air Force ranks 71st in the FBS with 27.7 points per contest, but it has been led by its defense, which ranks third-best by allowing only 13.3 points per game. Offensively, Air Force is a bottom-25 passing attack, accumulating only 67.8 passing yards per game (worst). Fortunately, it is excelling on defense, surrendering just 155.0 passing yards per contest (best). In terms of rushing, Air Force has dominated on both offense and defense this season, ranking best in rushing yards per game (331.5) and ninth-best in rushing yards surrendered per game (100.3). Air Force’s defense has been thriving on third down, surrendering a 30.2% third-down conversion rate (12th-best). On offense, it ranks 31st in the FBS with a 44.4% third-down rate. Air Force has recorded 15 forced turnovers (73rd in the FBS) and committed 13 turnovers (26th in the FBS) this season for a +2 turnover margin that ranks 47th in the FBS.

Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Analysis

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Baylor Betting Insights

Baylor has covered the spread seven times over 12 games with a set spread. In games they have played as 3.5-point favorites or more, Baylor has a perfect ATS record of 3-0. Baylor games have gone over the total eight times this season. The Bears have gone 2-3 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 40% of those games). The Bears have played as a moneyline favorite of -168 or shorter in only two games this season, and they won both.

Falcons Betting Insights

Air Force has covered the spread in a matchup six times this year (6-6-0). Air Force’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this year. The Falcons have not played a game this season while listed as the underdog. The Falcons have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +136 moneyline set for this game.

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Baylor vs. Air Force Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 54.5 53.7 55.3
Implied Total AVG 32.0 34.3 29.7
ATS Record 7-5-0 4-2-0 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 8-4-0 3-3-0 5-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-3 2-2 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-3 0-1 3-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.2 43.4 48.6
Implied Total AVG 29.3 29.3 29.5
ATS Record 6-6-0 4-4-0 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-7-0 4-4-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-3 7-1 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Players to Watch


  • Dillon Doyle has played 11 games, posting 83 tackles and two interceptions for the Bears.
  • Al Walcott has played 11 games, registering one interception to go along with 71 tackles, seven TFL, two sacks, and five passes defended for the Bears.
  • With 44 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and three interceptions in 10 games, Christian Morgan has been an important contributor to the Bears’ defensive unit in 2022.
  • Devin Lemear has been a significant part of the Bears’ defensive unit in 2022, with two interceptions to go with 48 tackles, one TFL, and four passes defended in nine games.


  • On defense, Trey Taylor has helped set the tone with two interceptions to go with 60 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and four passes defended in 12 games.
  • TD Blackmon has compiled 64 tackles, seven TFL, and three sacks in 11 games for the Falcons.
  • The Falcons’ Vince Sanford has compiled 43 tackles, eight TFL, five sacks, and two passes defended in 10 games.
  • The Falcons’ Alec Mock has totaled 54 tackles, three TFL, and one sack in nine games.

Baylor vs. Air Force Predictions and Pick

Baylor vs. Air Force betting card

    Pick ATS:

    Bears (-3.5)

    Pick OU:

    Over (43.5)

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How to Bet on Baylor vs. Air Force

You can bet on Baylor vs. Air Force at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Baylor vs. Air Force picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our pick to win this contest is Baylor, and we project that Baylor will cover the spread (Baylor -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 43.5 points.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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