Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Tuesday, January 10, 2023

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The Virginia Cavaliers (11-3, 3-2 ACC) face the North Carolina Tar Heels (11-5, 3-2 ACC) at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday in ACC play.

The Cavaliers square off against the Tar Heels in a game that Virginia is currently a favorite by 4.5 points. A 132.5-point over/under has been set for the matchup.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Odds

Point Spread for Virginia vs. North Carolina

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with bookmakers listing Virginia as the favorite.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Virginia has -199 odds to pick up the win, while North Carolina is listed at +165 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 132.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Tuesday, January 10, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
  • Arena: John Paul Jones Arena

Virginia vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

Virginia has played 14 games, with four wins against the spread. The Cavaliers have been chosen as favorites in eight games this year and have walked away with the win six times (75%) in those games. Virginia’s games this year have hit the over on eight of 16 set point totals.

North Carolina is 5-11-0 against the spread this year. The Tar Heels have yet to win a game they played as the moneyline underdog this season, going 2-1. North Carolina’s games this season have hit the over 62.5% of the time (10 out of 16 games with a set point total).

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Virginia vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch


Reece Beekman posts 9.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5 assists per game. At the other end, he delivers 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. Kadin Shedrick is putting up 9.4 points, 0.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game.
Jayden Gardner leads the Cavaliers at 5.3 rebounds per game, while also posting 0.6 assists and 11.3 points.

North Carolina

Armando Bacot is posting team highs in points (18.8 per game) and rebounds (11.2). And he is delivering 1.7 assists, making 56.7% of his shots from the floor. The Tar Heels get 16.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game from RJ Davis. Caleb Love is the Tar Heels’ top assist man (3.4 per game), and he posts 16.9 points and 4 rebounds. Pete Nance is posting 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest, making 50% of his shots from the field and 34% from 3-point range, with 1.2 treys per game.

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What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have a top-25 defense this season, ranking 15th-best in college basketball with 59.6 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 223rd with 70 points scored per contest. So far this season, Virginia is pulling down 29.7 rebounds per game (298th-ranked in college basketball) and giving up 28 rebounds per contest (32nd-ranked).

At home, the Cavaliers are averaging 0.6 more points per game (68.9) than they are away from home (68.3). Virginia is 179th in college basketball with 7.5 three-pointers per game this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 39th with a 38% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. With 7 threes conceded per game, the Cavaliers are 158th in the country. They are allowing a 34.8% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 260th in college basketball.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

Offensively, the Tar Heels are the 22nd-best team in the country (81.4 points per game). On defense, they are 313th (74.3 points conceded per game). On the boards, North Carolina is 18th-best in the nation in rebounds (37.1 per game). It is 246th in rebounds conceded (32.2 per game).

North Carolina makes 6.7 3-pointers per game and shoots 31.9% from beyond the arc, ranking 255th and 276th, respectively, in college basketball. In 2022-23, the Tar Heels are 278th in college basketball in 3-pointers conceded (8.1 per game) and 270th in defensive 3-point percentage (34.9%).

The Tar Heels have gone 6-4 in their past 10 contests, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span. North Carolina has gone over the total in eight of its past 10 outings. North Carolina is posting 82.5 points per game in its past 10 games, compared to its season average of 81.4. In their previous 10 games, the Tar Heels are giving up 76.5 points per contest, 2.2 more points than their season average (74.3).

Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is Virginia, and we expect that North Carolina will cover the spread (Virginia -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 132.5 points.

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How to bet Virginia vs. North Carolina

You can bet on Virginia vs. North Carolina at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Virginia vs. North Carolina picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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