Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Thursday, March 9, 2023

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiassetJlUSHKx Betsperts Media & Technology

The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (23-6, 15-5 ACC) and the No. 7 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12, 11-9 ACC) will try to move on in the ACC tournament on Thursday as they square off at 7:00 PM.

Thursday’s matchup between the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels features the Cavaliers as slim 2-point favorites. The matchup’s over/under is 128.5.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Odds

Point Spread for Virginia vs. North Carolina

The spread for this matchup is set at 2 points, with sportsbooks listing Virginia as the favorite.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Virginia has -137 odds to pick up the win, while North Carolina is listed at +115 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 128.5 points.

First Bet Offer on this game up to $1,000

Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
  • Arena: Greensboro Coliseum

Virginia vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

Virginia is 11-17-1 against the spread this season. The Cavaliers have won in 18, or 85.7%, of the 21 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Virginia’s games this year have gone over the point total 46.9% of the time (15 out of 32 games with a set point total).

Against the spread, North Carolina is 11-21-0 this season. The Tar Heels have not yet won a game they were the moneyline underdog this season, going 2-3. North Carolina’s games this year have hit the over on 14 of 32 set point totals (43.8%).

FanDuel NCAAB Promo
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

Virginia vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch


Kihei Clark paces his team in assists per contest (5.7), and also posts 11.1 points and 2.6 rebounds. At the other end, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Reece Beekman posts 9.3 points, 3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. Defensively, he delivers 1.6 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. Armaan Franklin paces his team in both points (12.6) and assists (1.4) per game, and also puts up 4.2 rebounds. At the other end, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocked shots. Jayden Gardner posts a team-high 5.5 rebounds per game. He is also posting 11.8 points and 0.7 assists, shooting 51.5% from the floor.

North Carolina

Armando Bacot leads the Tar Heels in rebounding (10.6 per game), and averages 16.3 points and 1.4 assists. He also puts up 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocked shots. RJ Davis paces the Tar Heels in assists (3.2 per game), and puts up 15.9 points and 5.1 rebounds. He also delivers 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Caleb Love tops the Tar Heels in scoring (16.8 points per game) and assists (2.8), and produces 3.8 rebounds. He also averages 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black gives the Tar Heels 7.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest. He also delivers 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.

DraftKings NCAAB Promo
Bet $5, Win $150

What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia’s ACC games have hit the over 10 out of 20 times this season. The Cavaliers are scoring 68.2 points per game this year (271st-ranked in college basketball), but they’ve really played well defensively, ceding just 60.5 points per contest (eighth-best). Virginia is grabbing 29.3 rebounds per game (303rd-ranked in college basketball) this season, while allowing 28.8 rebounds per contest (53rd-ranked).

So far this season, Virginia is making 7 treys per game (223rd-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 35.9% (88th-ranked) from beyond the arc. With 7.1 threes conceded per game, the Cavaliers rank 165th in the nation. They are giving up a 34.4% shooting percentage from three-point land, which ranks 219th in college basketball.

The Cavaliers are 3-6-1 against the spread and 7-3 overall over their last 10 games. In its past 10 games, Virginia has gone over the total four times. Virginia’s offense has been worse over its last 10 games, scoring 63.5 points a contest compared to the 68.2 it has averaged this year. Virginia has been slightly suspect on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing 61.2 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 60.5 it has conceded this year.

Caesars NCAAB Promo
$1,250 bet on Caesars on this game

What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina has put together an 8-13-0 record against the spread in conference action this season. The Tar Heels put up 76.7 points per game and allow 71, ranking them 59th in college basketball on offense and 204th defensively. North Carolina is the seventh-best squad in college basketball in rebounds per game (36.8) and is ranked 211th in rebounds conceded (31.6).

In 2022-23, North Carolina is 212th in the country in 3-point makes (7.1 per game) and 328th in 3-point percentage (31.2%). The Tar Heels are 82nd in college basketball in 3-pointers conceded (6.5 per game) and 130th in 3-point percentage defensively (33.1%).

The Tar Heels are 4-6 against the spread and 5-5 overall in their past 10 games. Four of North Carolina’s last 10 games have hit the over. North Carolina is posting 72.7 points per game in its past 10 games, which is four fewer points than its average for the season (76.7). In their past 10 games, the Tar Heels are allowing 69.4 points per game, compared to their season average of 71 points allowed.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is North Carolina, and we predict that North Carolina will cover the spread (Virginia -2). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 128.5 points.

BetMGM First Bet Offer up to $1000
First Bet Offer

How to bet Virginia vs. North Carolina

You can bet on Virginia vs. North Carolina at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Virginia vs. North Carolina picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

Deals of the Day

See All