Virginia vs Louisville Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Saturday, March 4, 2023

httpscdn.dataskrive.comapiassetekAtoUK Betsperts Media & Technology

The Louisville Cardinals (4-26, 2-17 ACC) will look to turn around a three-game losing skid when visiting the Virginia Cavaliers (22-6, 14-5 ACC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at John Paul Jones Arena. This game is at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN2.

Virginia is a colossal 18.5-point favorite against Louisville when the Cavaliers square off against the Cardinals on Saturday. The point total for the game is 127.5.

Virginia vs. Louisville Odds

Point Spread for Virginia vs. Louisville

The spread for this matchup is set at 18.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Virginia as the favorite.

Virginia vs. Louisville Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Virginia has -2667 odds to pick up the win, while Louisville is listed at +1188 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 127.5 points.

First Bet Offer on this game up to $1,000

Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN2
  • Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
  • Arena: John Paul Jones Arena

Virginia vs. Louisville Betting Trends

Virginia has 11 wins against the spread in 28 games this season. The Cavaliers have won in 17, or 85%, of the 20 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Virginia’s games this year have hit the over 14 times in 30 opportunities (46.7%).

Louisville is 12-18-0 against the spread this season. The Cardinals have won three of the 25 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (12%). Louisville’s games this season have hit the over on 14 of 30 set point totals (46.7%).

FanDuel NCAAB Promo
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

Virginia vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch


Kihei Clark is tops on the Cavaliers at 5.7 assists per contest, while also averaging 2.5 rebounds and 11.3 points. Reece Beekman is averaging 9.4 points, 5 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game. Armaan Franklin posts 12.4 points and 1.3 assists per game — both team highs. He is also posting 4.2 rebounds, shooting 42% from the floor and 38.6% from downtown with 2 made 3-pointers per game. Jayden Gardner posts a team-high 5.5 rebounds per contest. He is also posting 11.6 points and 0.7 assists, shooting 50.8% from the field.


The Cardinals get 9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game from Jae’Lyn Withers. The Cardinals receive 9.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game from Mike James. The Cardinals get 6.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game from JJ Traynor.

DraftKings NCAAB Promo
Bet $5, Win $150

What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia has covered eight times in 19 games with a spread in conference action this season. The Cavaliers have been lifted by their defense, as they rank ninth-best in the country by surrendering just 60.5 points per game. They rank 276th in college basketball in points scored (67.9 per contest). So far this season, Virginia is grabbing 29.6 boards per game (293rd-ranked in college basketball) and giving up 29 rebounds per contest (59th-ranked).

In home games, the Cavaliers are posting 2.5 more points per game (68.2) than they are on the road (65.7). Virginia is draining 7.1 three-pointers per game (215th-ranked in college basketball) this season, while putting up a 36% three-point percentage (74th-ranked). The Cavaliers are ceding 7.2 three-pointers per game (181st-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opponents to shoot 34.6% (231st-ranked) from three-point land.

The Cavaliers are 4-5-1 against the spread and 7-3 overall over their past 10 contests. Virginia has hit the over in four of its past 10 outings. In its last 10 games, Virginia has been putting up 63.6 points per game, an average that’s slightly lower than the 67.9 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 season. The past 10 games have seen Virginia concede 0.4 more points per game (60.9) than its season-long average (60.5).

Caesars NCAAB Promo
$1,250 bet on Caesars on this game

What you need to know about the Louisville Cardinals

So far this season, 10 out of Louisville’s 19 ACC games with an over/under have hit the over. Offensively, the Cardinals are the 20th-worst team in the country (64.1 points per game). On defense, they are 325th (75.7 points allowed per game). Louisville collects 30.1 rebounds per game and concede 31.1 boards, ranking 274th and 182nd, respectively, in the nation.

In 2022-23 the Cardinals are scoring 1.2 more points per game at home (66) than away (64.8). Beyond the arc, Louisville is 286th in the country in 3-pointers made per game (6.4). It is 240th in 3-point percentage at 33.2%. The Cardinals are 302nd in college basketball in 3-pointers allowed (8.3 per game) and 287th in 3-point percentage defensively (35.5%).

The Cardinals have gone 2-8 over their past 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span. In its past 10 contests, Louisville has hit the over six times. Louisville has performed better offensively over its last 10 games, scoring 67.4 points per contest, 3.3 more than its season average of 64.1. The Cardinals are allowing 76.6 points per contest over their last 10 games, which is 0.9 more points than they are allowing for the season (75.7).

Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Virginia, and we expect that Virginia will cover the spread (Virginia -18.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 127.5 points.

BetMGM First Bet Offer up to $1000
First Bet Offer

How to bet Virginia vs. Louisville

You can bet on Virginia vs. Louisville at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Virginia vs. Louisville picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

Deals of the Day

See All