Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, February 11, 2023

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The Virginia Cavaliers (18-4, 10-3 ACC) look to continue a six-game home winning streak when hosting the Duke Blue Devils (17-7, 8-5 ACC) on Saturday, February 11, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET.

The Cavaliers are currently 6-point favorites against the Blue Devils. A 126.5-point total has been set for the game.

Virginia vs. Duke Odds

Point Spread for Virginia vs. Duke

The spread for this matchup is set at 6 points, with bookmakers listing Virginia as the favorite.

Virginia vs. Duke Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Virginia has -264 odds to pick up the win, while Duke is listed at +215 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 126.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
  • Arena: John Paul Jones Arena

Virginia vs. Duke Betting Trends

Virginia is 9-12-1 against the spread this year. The Cavaliers have been chosen as favorites in 15 games this year and have walked away with the win 13 times (86.7%) in those games. Virginia’s games this year have hit the over on 12 of 24 set point totals.

Duke is 9-15-0 against the spread this season. The Blue Devils have been listed as the moneyline underdog just two other times so far this season, and they lost both games. Duke’s games this season have hit the over nine times in 24 opportunities (37.5%).

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Virginia vs. Duke Key Players to Watch


Kihei Clark is tops on his team in assists per game (6), and also averages 11.4 points and 2.8 rebounds. At the other end, he posts 1.2 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Reece Beekman puts up 10.2 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5 assists per contest, shooting 44.7% from the floor and 43.1% from downtown with 1 made 3-pointers per game. Armaan Franklin is tops on the Cavaliers with 12.2 points per game and 1.3 assists, while also averaging 4.3 rebounds.
Jayden Gardner is tops on the Cavaliers at 5.1 rebounds per game, while also averaging 0.5 assists and 11.5 points.


Kyle Filipowski is the Blue Devils’ top scorer (15.5 points per game) and rebounder (9.3), and delivers 1.4 assists. Ryan Young is posting 8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest, making 73.1% of his shots from the floor. Jeremy Roach is the Blue Devils’ top assist man (3 per game), and he contributes 12.5 points and 2.6 rebounds. The Blue Devils receive 8.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game from Tyrese Proctor.

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What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia and its ACC opponents have combined to go over the point total seven out of 13 times this season. The Cavaliers have a top-25 defense this season, ranking 10th-best in college basketball with 60.4 points allowed per game. Offensively, they rank 217th with 70 points scored per contest. This season, Virginia is averaging 29.7 rebounds per game (292nd-ranked in college basketball) and ceding 28 rebounds per contest (29th-ranked).

In home games, the Cavaliers are averaging 0.5 more points per game (69.4) than they are on the road (68.9). Virginia ranks 23rd-best in college basketball with a three-point shooting percentage of 38%. It ranks 157th in college basketball by draining 7.6 treys per contest. So far this year, the Cavaliers are giving up 7 threes per game (150th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opponents to shoot 34% (203rd-ranked) from downtown.

The Cavaliers have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, with a 5-4-1 record against the spread in that span. Six of Virginia’s past 10 contests have hit the over. Virginia has seen a downturn in scoring recently, putting up 69.8 points per game in its last 10 outings, 0.2 points fewer than the 70 it has scored this season. The last 10 games have seen Virginia allow 2.4 more points per game (62.8) than its season-long average (60.4).

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What you need to know about the Duke Blue Devils

Duke is 3-10-0 ATS in conference games this season. The Blue Devils score 71.9 points per game and give up 64.1, making them 169th in the country offensively and 41st on defense. Duke is the 12th-best squad in the country in rebounds per game (36.4) and is ranked 37th in rebounds allowed (28.2).

At home, the Blue Devils score 77.3 points per game. Away, they average 68.4. With 6.7 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 32.3% from downtown, Duke is 261st and 276th in the country, respectively, in those categories. In 2022-23, the Blue Devils are 56th in the nation in 3-pointers allowed (6.2 per game) and 26th in defensive 3-point percentage (30.3%).

The Blue Devils have two wins against the spread, and are 6-4 overall, over their past 10 contests. Duke has gone over the total in three of its last 10 contests. While Duke is putting up 71.9 points per game in 2022-23, it has fallen short of that over its previous 10 games, amassing 69.2 points per contest. The Blue Devils have fared worse defensively over their previous 10 games, surrendering 68.7 points per contest, 4.6 more points their than season average of 64.1.

Virginia vs. Duke Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Virginia, and we project that Duke will cover the spread (Virginia -6). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 126.5 points.

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How to bet Virginia vs. Duke

You can bet on Virginia vs. Duke at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Virginia vs. Duke picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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