UCSB vs Cal Poly Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Thursday, March 9, 2023

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The No. 2 seed UCSB Gauchos (24-7, 15-5 Big West) are taking on the No. 10 seed Cal Poly Mustangs (8-24, 1-18 Big West) in the Big West Tournament on Thursday at Dollar Loan Center. The matchup is scheduled for 9:00 PM.

Thursday’s matchup between the Gauchos and the Mustangs features the Gauchos as double-digit 10.5-point favorites. The game has a point total of 124.

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Odds

Point Spread for UCSB vs. Cal Poly

The spread for this matchup is set at 10.5 points, with oddsmakers listing UCSB as the favorite.

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Moneyline

As for the moneyline, UCSB has -596 odds to pick up the win, while Cal Poly is listed at +433 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 124 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: Henderson, Nevada
  • Arena: Dollar Loan Center

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Betting Trends

UCSB has played 29 games, with 18 wins against the spread. The Gauchos have won in 18, or 75%, of the 24 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. UCSB’s games this year have hit the over on 17 of 30 set point totals.

Cal Poly has played 30 games, with 17 wins, against the spread. The Mustangs have won three of the 23 games they were listed as the moneyline underdog this season (13%). Cal Poly has eclipsed the over/under 36.7% of the time this season (11 of 30 games with a set point total).

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UCSB vs. Cal Poly Key Players to Watch


Miles Norris puts up 14.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest. Defensively, he puts up 1 steal and 0.9 blocked shots. Andre Kelly paces the Gauchos at 6.5 rebounds per game, while also putting up 0.9 assists and 9.7 points. Josh Pierre-Louis is putting up 9.7 points, 2.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds per contest.

Cal Poly

Noah Pick is putting up points, 2 rebounds and assists per game, making % of his shots from the floor. Brantly Stevenson is averaging team highs in points (11 per game) and assists (1.6). And he is delivering 3.8 rebounds, making 46.8% of his shots from the field and 35.2% from 3-point range, with 1 treys per game. Alimamy Koroma gives the Mustangs 10.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 0.4 assists per contest. He also posts 0.4 steals and 0.9 blocked shots. Trevon Taylor is putting up a team-leading 4.8 rebounds per contest. And he is contributing 8.3 points and 1.1 assists, making 41.3% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the UCSB Gauchos

UCSB has covered 12 times in 20 matchups with a spread in conference action this season. The Gauchos are scoring 71.8 points per game (182nd-ranked in college basketball) this year, while giving up 65.4 points per contest (49th-ranked). UCSB ranks fourth-best in the nation by allowing only 26.3 rebounds per game. It ranks 299th in college basketball by pulling down 29.5 boards per contest.

UCSB has found it difficult to rack up three-pointers, ranking 20th-worst in college basketball with 5.5 treys per game. It ranks 154th with a 34.7% shooting percentage from beyond the arc this season. With 6 threes conceded per game, the Gauchos rank 36th in the country. They are giving up a 34.9% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 254th in college basketball.

The Gauchos have a 5-4-1 record against the spread while going 6-4 overall in their last 10 games. Eight of UCSB’s last 10 games have gone over the total. UCSB’s offense has been better over its last 10 games, scoring 74.3 points per contest compared to the 71.8 it has averaged this season. UCSB has been suspect on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing 72.7 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 65.4 it has conceded this year.

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What you need to know about the Cal Poly Mustangs

Cal Poly and its opponents have combined to hit the over eight out of 20 times this season in Big West play. In 2022-23, the Mustangs are worst in the nation offensively (61 points scored per game) and 62nd defensively (65.9 points conceded). On the glass, Cal Poly is 320th in the nation in rebounds (28.9 per game). It is 44th in rebounds conceded (28.5 per game).

In 2022-23 Cal Poly is 21st-worst in college basketball in 3-point makes (5.6 per game) and 10th-worst in 3-point percentage (29.9%). The Mustangs give up 6.4 3-pointers per game and concede 34.3% from beyond the arc, ranking 75th and 214th, respectively, in college basketball.

The Mustangs have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 1-9 overall over their past 10 games. Cal Poly has hit the over in six of its past 10 contests. Cal Poly is scoring 61.7 points per game over its last 10 games, which is 0.7 more than its average for the season (61). While the Mustangs are giving up 65.9 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse over their last 10 games, allowing 66.7 points per contest.

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is UCSB, and we project that UCSB will cover the spread (UCSB -10.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 124 points.

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How to bet UCSB vs. Cal Poly

You can bet on UCSB vs. Cal Poly at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s UCSB vs. Cal Poly picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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