UCF vs SMU Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023

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The No. 7 seed UCF Knights (17-13, 8-10 AAC) take on the No. 10 seed SMU Mustangs (10-21, 5-13 AAC) in the AAC Tournament Thursday at Dickies Arena, starting at 3:00 PM. Both teams will attempt to get one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Thursday’s matchup between the Knights and the Mustangs features the Knights as solid 7.5-point favorites. The point total for the game is set at 137.5.

UCF vs. SMU Odds

Point Spread for UCF vs. SMU

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with oddsmakers listing UCF as the favorite.

UCF vs. SMU Moneyline

As for the moneyline, UCF has -348 odds to pick up the win, while SMU is listed at +278 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 137.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPNU
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Arena: Dickies Arena

UCF vs. SMU Betting Trends

Against the spread, UCF is 15-14-1 this season. The Knights have won in 13, or 68.4%, of the 19 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. UCF’s games this year have gone over the total in 17 out of 31 opportunities (54.8%).

SMU has 11 wins against the spread in 31 games this season. The Mustangs have put together a 3-16 record in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 15.8% of those games). SMU’s games this season have hit the over 64.5% of the time (20 out of 31 games with a set point total).

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UCF vs. SMU Key Players to Watch


Taylor Hendricks leads the Knights with 15.6 points per contest and 6.7 rebounds, while also putting up 1.4 assists. CJ Kelly posts a team-high 2.8 assists per contest. He is also putting up 12.4 points and 3.6 rebounds, shooting 42.6% from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc with 1.9 made 3-pointers per contest. Ithiel Horton posts 12.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.3 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Darius Johnson is averaging 10.1 points, 4.4 assists and 2.9 rebounds per contest.


Samuell Williamson is posting a team-high 7.2 rebounds per game. And he is contributing 9.3 points and 2.6 assists, making 46.7% of his shots from the field. Zach Nutall is putting up 13.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest, making 38.8% of his shots from the floor and 31.7% from 3-point range, with 1.9 triples per game. The Mustangs receive 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1 assists per game from Efe Odigie.

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What you need to know about the UCF Knights

So far this season, 12 out of UCF’s 18 AAC games have hit the over. The Knights rank 177th in college basketball with 72 points per game so far this year. At the other end of the court, they rank 47th with 65.3 points allowed per contest. UCF is 220th in college basketball with 31.2 rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, it ranks 64th with 29.1 rebounds allowed per contest.

UCF is sinking 8.9 three-pointers per game (37th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while putting up a 35.9% three-point percentage (87th-ranked). The Knights are 101st in the nation with 6.6 treys allowed per game so far this year. Meanwhile, they rank 33rd with a 30.8% shooting percentage allowed from three-point land.

The Knights are 5-5 against the spread and 4-6 overall in their past 10 contests. UCF has hit the over in six of its past 10 contests. On offense, UCF has had a hard time putting the ball in the basket over its last 10 games, scoring 71.8 points per contest over that stretch compared to the 72 it has put up over the course of this season. UCF has been slightly better on the defensive end of the floor of late, giving up 65.2 points per game over its last 10 outings compared to the 65.3 it has conceded per game this year.

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What you need to know about the SMU Mustangs

A total of 14 SMU conference games this year have hit the over. The Mustangs put up 70.3 points per game and give up 75.5, making them 207th in the nation offensively and 322nd on defense. On the boards, SMU is 212th in the nation in rebounds (31.3 per game). It is 24th-worst in rebounds allowed (34.1 per game).

SMU is 291st in the country in 3-pointers made (6.3 per game) and 329th in 3-point percentage (31.1%). In 2022-23, the Mustangs are 244th in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (7.7 per game) and 245th in defensive 3-point percentage (34.7%).

The Mustangs have gone 3-7 in their past 10 games, with a 4-5-1 record against the spread during that span. SMU has gone over the total in seven of its past 10 outings. SMU is tallying 72.1 points per game over its past 10 games, compared to its season average of 70.3. The Mustangs are ceding 79.2 points per game in their previous 10 games, compared to their season average of 75.5 points allowed.

UCF vs. SMU Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is UCF, and we expect that UCF will cover the spread (UCF -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 137.5 points.

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How to bet UCF vs. SMU

You can bet on UCF vs. SMU at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s UCF vs. SMU picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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