Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Thursday, March 2, 2023

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The Troy Trojans (19-12, 11-7 Sun Belt) aim to extend a four-game home winning run when hosting the Arkansas State Red Wolves (13-19, 4-14 Sun Belt) on Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET.

Thursday’s matchup between the Trojans and the Red Wolves features the Trojans as healthy 8.5-point favorites. A 134.5-point total is set for the matchup.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Odds

Point Spread for Troy vs. Arkansas State

The spread for this matchup is set at 8.5 points, with bookmakers listing Troy as the favorite.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Troy has -399 odds to pick up the win, while Arkansas State is listed at +315 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 134.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 2, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN+
  • Location: Pensacola, Florida
  • Arena: Pensacola Bay Center

Troy vs. Arkansas State Betting Trends

Troy is 14-14-0 against the spread this season. The Trojans have been chosen as favorites in 19 games this year and have walked away with the win 13 times (68.4%) in those games. Troy’s games this year have gone over the total in 16 out of 29 opportunities (55.2%).

Against the spread, Arkansas State is 13-15-1 this year. The Red Wolves are 4-16 in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 20% of those games). Arkansas State’s games this season have eclipsed the over/under 41.4% of the time (12 out of 29 games with a set point total).

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Key Players to Watch


Zay Williams leads his squad in both points (12.1) and rebounds (7) per game, and also averages 1.3 assists. Defensively, he delivers 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocked shots. Nelson Phillips is posting 11 points, 2 assists and 5.4 rebounds per contest. Christyon Eugene averages a team-leading 2.7 assists per game. He is also putting up 11.8 points and 3.3 rebounds, shooting 46.2% from the floor and 40% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made 3-pointers per game. Aamer Muhammad posts 10.7 points, 1.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, shooting 38.5% from the floor and 33% from beyond the arc with 2 made 3-pointers per contest.

Arkansas State

Omar El-Sheikh is averaging team highs in points (11.5 per game) and rebounds (9.7). And he is delivering 0.7 assists, making 49.8% of his shots from the field. Caleb Fields leads the Red Wolves in assists (4.7 per game), and posts 11.3 points and 3.3 rebounds. He also delivers 1 steal and 0.1 blocked shots. Terrance Ford Jr. gets the Red Wolves 10.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He also puts up 1.3 steals and 0 blocked shots. The Red Wolves receive 8.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game from Avery Felts.

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What you need to know about the Troy Trojans

Troy is 8-10-0 ATS in conference games this season. The Trojans are putting up 73.5 points per game (133rd-ranked in college basketball) this year, while giving up 66.8 points per contest (84th-ranked). Troy is averaging 31.5 boards per game (196th-ranked in college basketball). It is giving up 29.6 rebounds per contest (89th-ranked).

So far this year, Troy is sinking 7.9 treys per game (120th-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 32.4% (278th-ranked) from downtown. The Trojans are 43rd in the nation with 6.1 three-pointers allowed per game so far this season. Meanwhile, they rank 60th with a 31.6% shooting percentage allowed from three-point land.

The Trojans have a 3-7 record against the spread while going 6-4 overall in their past 10 games. Troy has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 games. Troy’s offense has been worse over its last 10 games, putting up 71.3 points a contest compared to the 73.5 it has averaged this year. Troy has been a little suspect on the defensive end of the floor recently, giving up 71.1 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 66.8 it has conceded this season.

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What you need to know about the Arkansas State Red Wolves

In Arkansas State’s 19 chances this year in Sun Belt action, the combined scoring has gone over the point total nine times. The Red Wolves put up 65.9 points per game and allow 67.8, making them 322nd in college basketball on offense and 113th defensively. On the glass, Arkansas State is 164th in the country in rebounds (32 per game). It is 213th in rebounds conceded (31.6 per game).

In 2022-23, Arkansas State is 296th in college basketball in 3-point makes (6.3 per game) and 138th in 3-point percentage (35.1%). The Red Wolves are 117th in college basketball in 3-pointers allowed (6.7 per game) and 22nd-worst in 3-point percentage defensively (37%).

The Red Wolves have gone 4-6 in their past 10 games, with a 7-3 record against the spread during that span. Five of Arkansas State’s last 10 games have gone over the total. Arkansas State has performed better offensively over its previous 10 games, tallying 66.2 points per contest, 0.3 more than its season average of 65.9. While the Red Wolves are allowing 67.8 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse over their last 10 games, allowing 68.8 points per contest.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is Troy, and we expect that Troy will cover the spread (Troy -8.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 134.5 points.

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How to bet Troy vs. Arkansas State

You can bet on Troy vs. Arkansas State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Troy vs. Arkansas State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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