Texas vs Penn State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Saturday, March 18, 2023

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The No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns (27-8) take on the No. 10 seed Penn State Nittany Lions (23-13) with a Sweet 16 berth in the Midwest Region of the bracket on the line on Saturday at Wells Fargo Arena.

Saturday’s matchup between the Longhorns and the Nittany Lions features the Longhorns as 5-point favorites. A 138-point over/under has been set for the game.

Texas vs. Penn State Odds

Point Spread for Texas vs. Penn State

The spread for this matchup is set at 5 points, with bookmakers listing Texas as the favorite.

Texas vs. Penn State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Texas has -241 odds to pick up the win, while Penn State is listed at +196 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 138 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:45 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Des Moines, Iowa
  • Arena: Wells Fargo Arena

Texas vs. Penn State Betting Trends

Texas is 18-17-0 against the spread this season. The Longhorns have been favorites in 25 games this season and have come away with the win 22 times (88%) in those contests. Texas’ games this year have gone over the point total 16 times in 36 opportunities (44.4%).

Against the spread, Penn State is 21-14-1 this year. The Nittany Lions have been the moneyline underdog 17 total times this season. They’ve finished 8-9 in those games. Penn State’s games this season have hit the over on 20 of 36 set point totals (55.6%).

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Texas vs. Penn State Key Players to Watch


Jabari Rice is averaging 12.9 points, 2.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Timmy Allen averages a team-high 5.4 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 10.3 points and 3.6 assists, shooting 48.2% from the floor. Tyrese Hunter puts up 10.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. At the other end, he posts 0.9 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.

Penn State

Jalen Pickett tops the Nittany Lions in scoring (17.9 points per game), rebounding (7.3) and assists (6.7), making 51.1% from the floor and 38.5% from beyond the arc with 1.3 triples per contest. He also produces 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. The Nittany Lions get 14.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game from Seth Lundy. The Nittany Lions get 12.5 points, 3 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game from Andrew Funk. The Nittany Lions get 8.8 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2 assists per game from Camren Wynter.

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What you need to know about the Texas Longhorns

On offense, the Longhorns are posting 77.9 points per game (37th-ranked in college basketball). They are surrendering 67.2 points per contest at the other end (88th-ranked). With 31.9 boards per game, Texas ranks 173rd in the nation. It surrenders 31 rebounds per contest, which ranks 172nd in college basketball.

Texas is 192nd in the nation with 7.3 threes per game so far this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 164th with a 34.5% shooting percentage from downtown. The Longhorns are allowing 6.4 threes per game (73rd-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 32.4% (98th-ranked) from beyond the arc.

The Longhorns have a 7-3 record against the spread while finishing 7-3 overall in their last 10 games. In Texas’ past 10 games, it has hit the over twice. Texas has seen a decrease in scoring recently, putting up 72.7 points per game in its last 10 contests, 5.2 points fewer than the 77.9 it has scored this year. Texas’ defense has been tougher lately, as the team has given up 65 points per game over its past 10 compared to the 67.2 points per game its opponents are averaging this season.

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What you need to know about the Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions are 161st in the country in points scored (72.4 per game) and 121st in points allowed (68.1). In 2022-23, Penn State is 279th in the country in rebounds (30 per game) and 285th in rebounds allowed (32.7).

Beyond the arc, Penn State is fourth-best in the nation in 3-pointers made per game at 10.5. And it is fifth-best in 3-point percentage at 39%. Defensively, the Nittany Lions are 203rd in the nation in 3-pointers conceded per game at 7.4. They are 129th in 3-point percentage allowed at 33.1%.

The Nittany Lions are 7-2-1 against the spread and 8-2 overall in their last 10 games. Penn State has gone over the total in five of its last 10 contests. Penn State is putting up 70.4 points per game over its last 10 games, which is two fewer points than its average for the season (72.4). In their last 10 games, the Nittany Lions are ceding 66.8 points per game, compared to their season average of 68.1 points allowed.

Texas vs. Penn State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Texas, and we predict that Texas will cover the spread (Texas -5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 138 points.

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How to bet Texas vs. Penn State

You can bet on Texas vs. Penn State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Texas vs. Penn State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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