TCU vs Kansas State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023

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The No. 6 seed TCU Horned Frogs (20-11, 9-9 Big 12) will head into the Big 12 Tournament against the No. 3 seed Kansas State Wildcats (23-8, 11-7 Big 12) on Thursday at T-Mobile Center, beginning at 9:30 PM.

Thursday’s matchup between the Horned Frogs and the Wildcats features the Horned Frogs as 2.5-point favorites. The game’s over/under is 147.5.

TCU vs. Kansas State Odds

Point Spread for TCU vs. Kansas State

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with oddsmakers listing TCU as the favorite.

TCU vs. Kansas State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, TCU has -141 odds to pick up the win, while Kansas State is listed at +119 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 147.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN2
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Arena: T-Mobile Center

TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Trends

Against the spread, TCU is 15-16-0 this year. The Horned Frogs have been favorites in 18 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (72.2%) in those contests. TCU has hit the over in 51.6% of its opportunities this year (16 times in 31 games with a set point total).

Against the spread, Kansas State is 21-10-0 this season. The Wildcats have won 38.5% of the games this season they were the underdog on the moneyline (5-8). Kansas State has gone over the point total 51.6% of the time this season (16 of 31 games with a set point total).

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TCU vs. Kansas State Key Players to Watch


Damion Baugh is tops on the Horned Frogs at 6 assists per game, while also posting 4.4 rebounds and 13 points. Emanuel Miller totals a team-leading 6.5 rebounds per contest. In addition, he’s averaging 12.8 points and 1.9 assists, shooting 53.2% from the floor. Mike Miles averages a team-best 17.2 points per contest. He is also averaging 2.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists, shooting 50% from the field and 32.5% from beyond the arc with 1.2 made 3-pointers per game. JaKobe Coles puts up 8.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists per contest, shooting 48.5% from the floor.

Kansas State

Markquis Nowell paces the Wildcats in assists (7.7 per game), and produces 17 points and 3.5 rebounds. He also posts 2.5 steals (eighth in the country) and 0.1 blocked shots. Keyontae Johnson is averaging team highs in points (17.8 per game) and rebounds (7). And he is contributing 2.2 assists, making 51.9% of his shots from the floor and 42.4% from 3-point range, with 1.4 triples per game. Nae’Qwan Tomlin is posting 10.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest, making 48.6% of his shots from the floor. The Wildcats get 8.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game from Desi Sills.

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What you need to know about the TCU Horned Frogs

TCU has won eight games against the spread in conference action this season, while failing to cover 10 times. The Horned Frogs are putting up 75.5 points per game (90th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while giving up 68 points per contest (119th-ranked). TCU is 94th in college basketball with 33.2 boards per game so far this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 201st with 31.5 rebounds allowed per game.

In terms of threes, TCU has been inefficient, as it ranks 14th-worst in college basketball in threes made (5.2 per game) and seventh-worst in three-point percentage (29.6%). With 6.3 treys conceded per game, the Horned Frogs are 66th in the nation. They are allowing a 31.1% shooting percentage from downtown, which ranks 41st in college basketball.

The Horned Frogs have gone 4-6 over their last 10 contests, with a 3-7 record against the spread during that span. TCU has gone over the total in four of its past 10 outings. On the offensive side of the ball, TCU has struggled over its last 10 games, scoring 71.3 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 75.5 it has put up over the course of this year. TCU has been more porous on defense lately, giving up 74.2 points per game over its past 10 contests compared to the 68 points per game its opponents average on the 2022-23 season.

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What you need to know about the Kansas State Wildcats

A total of 10 Kansas State conference games this year have gone over the point total. The Wildcats are 83rd in college basketball in points scored (75.8 per game) and 137th in points allowed (68.7). Kansas State is 144th in the country in rebounds per game (32.3) and 123rd in rebounds allowed (30.2).

Kansas State is 212th in the country in 3-pointers made (7.1 per game) and 165th in 3-point percentage (34.5%). In 2022-23 the Wildcats are 51st in college basketball in 3-pointers conceded (6.2 per game) and 12th-best in defensive 3-point percentage (29.5%).

The Wildcats are 5-5 against the spread and 5-5 overall in their past 10 contests. Four of Kansas State’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. Kansas State is posting 72.9 points per game over its past 10 games, which is 2.9 fewer points than its average for the season (75.8). The Wildcats are surrendering 71.6 points per contest over their previous 10 games, compared to their season average of 68.7 points allowed.

TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is TCU, and we project that Kansas State will cover the spread (TCU -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 147.5 points.

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How to bet TCU vs. Kansas State

You can bet on TCU vs. Kansas State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s TCU vs. Kansas State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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