Purdue vs Penn State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Sunday, March 12, 2023

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The Big Ten championship will be decided Sunday, as the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers (28-5, 15-5 Big Ten) meet the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (22-12, 10-10 Big Ten) at 3:30 PM.

The Boilermakers match up against the Nittany Lions in a game that Purdue is currently a strong favorite by 7.5 points. The matchup has a point total of 134.5.

Purdue vs. Penn State Odds

Point Spread for Purdue vs. Penn State

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Purdue as the favorite.

Purdue vs. Penn State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Purdue has -350 odds to pick up the win, while Penn State is listed at +275 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 134.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, March 12, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Chicago, Illinois
  • Arena: United Center

Purdue vs. Penn State Betting Trends

Purdue has 13 wins against the spread in 33 games this season. The Boilermakers have been chosen as favorites in 26 games this year and have walked away with the win 23 times (88.5%) in those games. Purdue has hit the over in 44.1% of its opportunities this year (15 times in 34 games with a set point total).

In Penn State’s 34 games this year, it has 19 wins against the spread. The Nittany Lions have won seven of the 15 games they were listed as the moneyline underdog this season (46.7%). Penn State’s games this season have hit the over on 20 of 34 set point totals (58.8%).

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Purdue vs. Penn State Key Players to Watch


Zach Edey averages 22.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per game — both team highs. He is also averaging 1.6 assists, shooting 60.2% from the floor. Braden Smith puts up a team-high 4.2 assists per game. He is also posting 10 points and 4.2 rebounds, shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.7% from downtown with 1.1 made 3-pointers per contest. Fletcher Loyer averages 11.1 points, 1.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. At the other end, he puts up 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Caleb Furst averages 5.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game, shooting 51.7% from the floor.

Penn State

Jalen Pickett tops the Nittany Lions in scoring (18.1 points per game), rebounding (7.4) and assists (6.8), shooting 52.1% from the floor and 39.3% from 3-point range with 1.3 triples per contest. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. Seth Lundy is posting 14.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.9 assists per contest, making 45.1% of his shots from the floor and 40.1% from beyond the arc, with 2.6 treys per contest. Andrew Funk is putting up 12.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists per contest, making 44% of his shots from the floor and 41.3% from beyond the arc, with 3 triples per contest. Camren Wynter gets the Nittany Lions 8.8 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. He also puts up 0.5 steals and 0 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue has put together a 9-12-1 conference record against the spread this season. The Boilermakers have a top-25 defense this year, ranking 22nd-best in college basketball with 62.7 points allowed per game. On offense, they rank 136th with 73.3 points scored per contest. Purdue is playing well when it comes to rebounding, as it ranks ninth-best in college basketball in rebounds (36.2 per game) and best in rebounds allowed (24.3 per contest).

So far this season, Purdue is draining 6.9 treys per game (230th-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 33.1% (236th-ranked) from downtown. The Boilermakers are 70th in college basketball with 6.4 three-pointers allowed per game so far this year. Meanwhile, they rank 52nd with a 31.4% shooting percentage allowed from beyond the arc.

The Boilermakers have a 3-7 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall over their last 10 contests. In its past 10 games, Purdue has hit the over six times. Purdue’s offense has been worse over its last 10 games, putting up 71.5 points a contest compared to the 73.3 it has averaged this season. Purdue’s defense has been more porous as of late, as the team has given up 68.1 points per game during its past 10 compared to the 62.7 points per game its opponents average this season.

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What you need to know about the Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State has put together a 13-9-1 record against the spread in conference games this season. At 72.5 points scored per game and 68.4 points allowed, the Nittany Lions are 159th in college basketball on offense and 124th defensively. At 30.1 rebounds per game and 32.6 rebounds conceded, Penn State is 271st and 281st in college basketball, respectively.

Beyond the arc, Penn State is fourth-best in the country in 3-pointers made per game at 10.5. And it is 11th-best in 3-point percentage at 38.7%. Giving up 7.4 3-pointers per game and conceding 33.7% from downtown, the Nittany Lions are 202nd and 177th in the nation, respectively, in those categories.

The Nittany Lions have gone 8-2 in their past 10 contests, with a 7-2-1 record against the spread in that span. Penn State has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 contests. While Penn State is putting up 72.5 points per game in 2022-23, it has fallen short of that over its previous 10 games, amassing 72.4 points per contest. Over their last 10 games, the Nittany Lions are allowing 69.7 points per game, 1.3 more points than their season average (68.4).

Purdue vs. Penn State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Purdue, and we predict that Penn State will cover the spread (Purdue -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 134.5 points.

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How to bet Purdue vs. Penn State

You can bet on Purdue vs. Penn State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Purdue vs. Penn State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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