North Carolina vs NC State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – Saturday, January 21, 2023

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The NC State Wolf Pack (15-4, 5-3 ACC) will try to continue a four-game winning run when hitting the road against the North Carolina Tar Heels (13-6, 5-3 ACC) on Saturday, January 21, 2023 at Dean Smith Center. It airs at 5:00 PM ET.

North Carolina is a healthy 6.5-point favorite against NC State when the Tar Heels square off against the Wolf Pack on Saturday. The matchup’s point total is 153.5.

North Carolina vs. NC State Odds

Point Spread for North Carolina vs. NC State

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with oddsmakers listing North Carolina as the favorite.

North Carolina vs. NC State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, North Carolina has -282 odds to pick up the win, while NC State is listed at +225 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 153.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, January 21, 2023
  • Game Time: 5:00 PM ET
  • Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • Arena: Dean Smith Center

North Carolina vs. NC State Betting Trends

North Carolina has played 19 games, with six wins against the spread. The Tar Heels have been favorites in 15 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (86.7%) in those contests. North Carolina has gone over the point total in 52.6% of its opportunities this year (10 times in 19 games with a set point total).

Against the spread, NC State is 9-8-2 this year. The Wolf Pack have won 50% of the games this season they were the moneyline underdog (3-3). NC State has eclipsed the over/under 52.6% of the time this year (10 of 19 games with a set point total).

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North Carolina vs. NC State Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armando Bacot averages 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per contest — both team highs. He is also putting up 1.7 assists, shooting 57.9% from the floor. RJ Davis paces the Tar Heels at 3.2 assists per game, while also posting 4.8 rebounds and 16.3 points. Caleb Love averages a team-high 3.2 assists per contest. He is also averaging 16.3 points and 3.6 rebounds, shooting 38.5% from the floor and 27.1% from downtown with 1.9 made 3-pointers per game. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black averages 7.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists per contest. At the other end, he posts 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocked shots.

NC State

Jarkel Joiner is putting up 16.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, making 44.0% of his shots from the floor and 35.1% from 3-point range, with 1.4 treys per game. Casey Morsell is posting 12.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.0 assists per contest, making 48.9% of his shots from the floor and 44.3% from beyond the arc, with 2.5 triples per game. Jack Clark is posting a team-best 7.1 rebounds per game. And he is contributing 9.1 points and 1.8 assists, making 40.5% of his shots from the field and 26.1% from 3-point range, with 1.2 treys per contest.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

With 79.6 points per game on offense, the Tar Heels are 33rd in the nation. At the other end of the court, they allow 72.4 points per contest, which ranks 267th in college basketball. North Carolina ranks 22nd-best in college basketball by pulling down 36.5 boards per game. In terms of rebounds allowed, it ranks 204th in college basketball (31.5 allowed per contest).

The Tar Heels average 82.1 points per game at home, compared to 69.8 points per game in away games, a difference of 12.3 points per contest. With 6.9 treys per game, North Carolina ranks 243rd in college basketball. It owns a 32.0% shooting percentage from beyond the arc, which ranks 280th in college basketball. This season, the Tar Heels are ceding 7.2 treys per game (177th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opposing teams to shoot 33.3% (172nd-ranked) from downtown.

The Tar Heels have gone 8-2 in their last 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread in that span. Six of North Carolina’s past 10 games have hit the over. North Carolina’s offense has been better over its last 10 games, putting up 79.7 points per contest compared to the 79.6 it has averaged this year. The past 10 games have seen North Carolina concede 3.1 fewer points per game (69.3) than its season-long average (72.4).

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What you need to know about the NC State Wolf Pack

The Wolf Pack are 34th in the nation in points scored (79.5 per game) and 159th in points allowed (68.4). NC State grabs 35.3 rebounds per game and concede 31.0 boards, ranking 48th and 174th, respectively, in the country.

In 2022-23 the Wolf Pack are scoring 12.3 more points per game at home (84.3) than away (72.0). At 8.6 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 34.3% from beyond the arc, NC State is 64th and 172nd in the country, respectively, in those categories. Giving up 5.7 3-pointers per game and conceding 30.5% from downtown, the Wolf Pack are 26th and 54th in college basketball, respectively, in those categories.

The Wolf Pack have gone 8-2 over their past 10 games, with a 4-5-1 record against the spread in that span. NC State has hit the over in four of its past 10 contests. While NC State is posting 79.5 points per game in 2022-23, it has fallen short of that in its past 10 games, producing 78.7 points per contest. The Wolf Pack are ceding 70.9 points per game over their last 10 games, compared to their season average of 68.4 points allowed.

North Carolina vs. NC State Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this game is North Carolina, and we project that NC State will cover the spread (North Carolina -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 153.5 points.

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How to bet North Carolina vs. NC State

You can bet on North Carolina vs. NC State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s North Carolina vs. NC State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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