North Carolina vs Florida State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Monday, February 27, 2023

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The Florida State Seminoles (9-20, 7-11 ACC) will host the North Carolina Tar Heels (18-11, 10-8 ACC) after losing six home games in a row. It tips at 7:00 PM ET on Monday, February 27, 2023.

Monday’s matchup between the Tar Heels and the Seminoles features the Tar Heels as solid 7.5-point favorites. The over/under for the matchup is 155.

North Carolina vs. Florida State Odds

Point Spread for North Carolina vs. Florida State

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with sportsbooks listing North Carolina as the favorite.

North Carolina vs. Florida State Moneyline

As for the moneyline, North Carolina has -356 odds to pick up the win, while Florida State is listed at +282 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 155 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Monday, February 27, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Tallahassee, Florida
  • Arena: Donald L. Tucker Civic Center

North Carolina vs. Florida State Betting Trends

North Carolina is 9-20-0 against the spread this year. The Tar Heels have been favorites in 23 games this season and have come away with the win 18 times (78.3%) in those contests. North Carolina has hit the over in 44.8% of its opportunities this year (13 times over 29 games with a set point total).

Florida State has played 29 games, with 12 wins, against the spread. The Seminoles have won four of the 19 games they were listed as the moneyline underdog this season (21.1%). Florida State’s games this year have gone over the point total 58.6% of the time (17 out of 29 games with a set point total).

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North Carolina vs. Florida State Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armando Bacot puts up 17 points and 10.9 rebounds per game — both team highs. He is also putting up 1.5 assists, shooting 56.1% from the floor. RJ Davis paces the Tar Heels at 3.2 assists per game, while also putting up 5.1 rebounds and 15.7 points. Caleb Love puts up 16.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, shooting 38.4% from the field and 30.5% from beyond the arc with 2.2 made 3-pointers per contest. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black puts up 7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game, shooting 42% from the field.

Florida State

Matthew Cleveland is putting up team highs in points (14.3 per game) and rebounds (7.7). And he is contributing 1.9 assists, making 46% of his shots from the field. Caleb Mills is the Seminoles’ top assist man (3.6 per game), and he averages 13 points and 3 rebounds. The Seminoles receive 13.9 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game from Darin Green Jr.. Jalen Warley is posting 6.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, making 49.6% of his shots from the floor.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

So far this season, seven out of North Carolina’s 18 ACC games have gone over the point total. The Tar Heels are putting up 77.1 points per game (56th-ranked in college basketball) this season, while allowing 71.8 points per contest (236th-ranked). North Carolina is top-25 this season in rebounding, ranking sixth-best in college basketball with 36.9 boards per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 233rd with 31.8 rebounds allowed per contest.

Offensively, the Tar Heels have played better when playing at home this season, putting up 79.8 points per game, compared to 69.5 per game when playing on the road. North Carolina, who ranks 253rd in college basketball with 6.8 threes per game, is shooting just 30.4% from beyond the arc, which is 21st-worst in the country. With 6.7 three-pointers conceded per game, the Tar Heels are 113th in college basketball. They are giving up a 33.5% shooting percentage from three-point land, which ranks 158th in college basketball.

The Tar Heels have gone 5-5 in their past 10 contests, with a 3-7 record against the spread during that span. North Carolina has hit the over in three of its past 10 contests. North Carolina’s offense has been worse over its last 10 games, putting up 72.4 points a contest compared to the 77.1 it has averaged this season. North Carolina has been tougher on defense as of late, allowing 70.7 points per game during its past 10 outings compared to the 71.8 points per game its opponents average on the 2022-23 season.

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What you need to know about the Florida State Seminoles

Florida State has won nine games against the spread this year in conference action, while failing to cover nine times. In 2022-23, the Seminoles are 214th in the nation on offense (70.1 points scored per game) and 24th-worst defensively (76.5 points conceded). Florida State is 332nd in the country in rebounds per game (28.4) and 288th in rebounds conceded (32.8).

The Seminoles are putting up more points at home (71.9 per game) than on the road (69.4). Florida State is 263rd in college basketball in 3-pointers made (6.6 per game) and 221st in 3-point percentage (33.6%). In 2022-23 the Seminoles are 331st in the nation in 3-pointers conceded (8.7 per game) and 20th-worst in defensive 3-point percentage (37%).

The Seminoles have a 3-7 record against the spread while going 3-7 overall in their past 10 contests. In its past 10 games, Florida State has hit the over seven times. Florida State is scoring 71.2 points per game in its last 10 games, which is 1.1 more than its average for the season (70.1). The Seminoles are allowing 81.6 points per game in their previous 10 games, which is 5.1 more points than they are allowing for the season (76.5).

North Carolina vs. Florida State Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is North Carolina, and we expect that North Carolina will cover the spread (North Carolina -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 155 points.

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How to bet North Carolina vs. Florida State

You can bet on North Carolina vs. Florida State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s North Carolina vs. Florida State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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