North Carolina vs Duke Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023

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A pair of streaking squads square off when the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8 ACC) host the Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 6:30 PM ET. The Tar Heels are putting their three-game winning streak on the line versus the Blue Devils, who have won five in a row.

North Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite against Duke when the Tar Heels take on the Blue Devils on Saturday. The matchup has an over/under of 143.

North Carolina vs. Duke Odds

Point Spread for North Carolina vs. Duke

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing North Carolina as the favorite.

North Carolina vs. Duke Moneyline

As for the moneyline, North Carolina has -186 odds to pick up the win, while Duke is listed at +157 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 143 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • Arena: Dean Smith Center

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Trends

North Carolina is 10-20-0 against the spread this season. The Tar Heels have been favorites in 24 games this season and have come away with the win 19 times (79.2%) in those contests. North Carolina’s games this year have hit the over on 13 of 30 set point totals.

In Duke’s 30 games this season, it has 11 wins against the spread. The Blue Devils have been the moneyline underdog a total of three times this season, and they’ve lost each of those games. Duke’s games this year have gone over the total in 12 of 30 opportunities (40%).

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North Carolina vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Armando Bacot paces his squad in rebounds per contest (10.8), and also posts 16.5 points and 1.4 assists. At the other end, he posts 0.6 steals and 1 block. RJ Davis leads his squad in assists per contest (3.2), and also puts up 15.8 points and 5.1 rebounds. Defensively, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Caleb Love is tops on his squad in points per game (16.9), and also posts 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Defensively, he averages 1 steal and 0.2 blocked shots. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black posts 7.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, shooting 43.5% from the field.


Kyle Filipowski is posting team highs in points (14.8 per game) and rebounds (9). And he is producing 1.5 assists, making 42.5% of his shots from the floor. Jeremy Roach is the Blue Devils’ top assist man (3.3 per game), and he averages 13.2 points and 2.4 rebounds. Ryan Young gives the Blue Devils 7.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per contest. He also delivers 0.3 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Mark Mitchell is averaging 9.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest, making 48.3% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina has covered seven times in 19 games with a spread in conference play this season. The Tar Heels are putting up 77.1 points per game (56th-ranked in college basketball) this season, while surrendering 71.6 points per contest (227th-ranked). North Carolina is top-25 this year in rebounding, ranking sixth-best in college basketball with 36.9 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 221st with 31.7 rebounds allowed per contest.

The Tar Heels are posting 79.8 points per game in home games. In road games, they are averaging 70.2 points per contest. So far this year, North Carolina is making 7 threes per game (222nd-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 31.2% (330th-ranked) from three-point land. The Tar Heels are giving up 6.6 threes per game (100th-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 33.2% (139th-ranked) from beyond the arc.

The Tar Heels have gone 5-5 over their past 10 contests, with a 3-7 record against the spread during that span. North Carolina has hit the over in three of its past 10 contests. In its last 10 games, North Carolina has been racking up 72.1 points per contest, an average that’s slightly lower than the 77.1 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 season. North Carolina’s defense has been tougher as of late, as the team has given up 70.4 points per game over its past 10 compared to the 71.6 points per game its opponents are averaging this season.

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What you need to know about the Duke Blue Devils

In Duke’s 19 chances this year in ACC play, the combined scoring has gone over the point total nine times. The Blue Devils put up 72.1 points per game and give up 64, making them 174th in college basketball on offense and 32nd defensively. In 2022-23, Duke is 11th-best in the nation in rebounds (36.2 per game) and 23rd-best in rebounds allowed (27.8).

In 2022-23 the Blue Devils are scoring eight more points per game at home (76.7) than on the road (68.7). In 2022-23, Duke is 234th in the nation in 3-point makes (6.9 per game) and 256th in 3-point percentage (32.9%). Defensively, the Blue Devils are 53rd in the country in 3-pointers allowed per game at 6.2. They are 38th in 3-point percentage conceded at 31%.

The Blue Devils are 4-6 against the spread and 8-2 overall over their past 10 contests. Four of Duke’s past 10 contests have gone over the total. Over its last 10 games, Duke is scoring 72.1 points per game, the same number of points as its season average. The Blue Devils have performed better defensively over their last 10 games, giving up 63.6 points per contest, 0.4 fewer points than their season average of 64 allowed.

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is North Carolina, and we expect that Duke will cover the spread (North Carolina -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 143 points.

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How to bet North Carolina vs. Duke

You can bet on North Carolina vs. Duke at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s North Carolina vs. Duke picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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