Mississippi State vs Kentucky Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – Wednesday, February 15, 2023

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The Mississippi State Bulldogs (17-8, 5-7 SEC) welcome in the Kentucky Wildcats (16-9, 7-5 SEC) after winning three straight home games. It starts at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, February 15, 2023.

Mississippi State is a moderate 3-point favorite against Kentucky when the Bulldogs take the court against the Wildcats on Wednesday. The over/under for the matchup is 128.5.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Odds

Point Spread for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing Mississippi State as the favorite.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Mississippi State has -153 odds to pick up the win, while Kentucky is listed at +130 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 128.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Wednesday, February 15, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Starkville, Mississippi
  • Arena: Humphrey Coliseum

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Betting Trends

In the Mississippi State’s 25 games this year, it has 13 wins against the spread. The Bulldogs have been chosen as favorites in 17 games this year and have walked away with the win 14 times (82.4%) in those games. Mississippi State’s games this year have eclipsed the over/under seven times in 25 opportunities (28%).

Kentucky has 10 wins against the spread in 25 games this year. The Wildcats have won one of the four games they were the underdog on the moneyline this season (25%). Kentucky has eclipsed the over/under 64% of the time this year (16 of 25 games with a set point total).

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith puts up 14.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game — both team highs. He is also putting up 1.8 assists, shooting 57.4% from the floor. D.J. Jeffries is posting 9 points, 1.8 assists and 6 rebounds per game. Cameron Matthews puts up 6.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.7 steals and 0.7 blocked shots. Shakeel Moore averages 9.2 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, shooting 41.2% from the floor and 28.7% from downtown with 1.1 made 3-pointers per contest.


Oscar Tshiebwe is No. 1 on the Wildcats in scoring (15.7 points per game) and rebounding (13.3), and averages 1.6 assists. He also averages 1.6 steals and 1 block. The Wildcats get 12 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game from Cason Wallace. Jacob Toppin gets the Wildcats 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest. He also puts up 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots. The Wildcats receive 13.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game from Antonio Reeves.

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What you need to know about the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State has compiled a 7-5-0 conference record against the spread this season. The Bulldogs have been lifted by their defense, as they rank fourth-best in the country by giving up just 58.7 points per game. They rank 324th in college basketball in points scored (65.6 per contest). Mississippi State ranks 32nd in the country with 35.2 rebounds per game so far this year. Meanwhile, it ranks 131st with 30.4 rebounds allowed per game.

Offensively the Bulldogs have played better in home games this year, posting 69.5 points per game, compared to 62 per game in road games. Mississippi State ranks third-worst in the nation with a 28.5% shooting percentage from downtown. Meanwhile, it is draining 5.7 three-pointers per game (329th-ranked in college basketball). The Bulldogs are giving up 7.2 treys per game (182nd-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 30.6% (32nd-ranked) from three-point land.

The Bulldogs are 7-3 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their last 10 contests. Mississippi State has hit the over in four of its last 10 games. On the offensive side of the ball, Mississippi State has struggled over its last 10 games, scoring 63.8 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 65.6 it has racked up over the course of this year. Mississippi State’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (61.8) is 3.1 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (58.7).

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What you need to know about the Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky has compiled a 6-6-0 record against the spread in conference games this year. Offensively the Wildcats are the 112th-ranked squad in college basketball (74.8 points per game). Defensively they are 126th (68 points conceded per game). On the boards, Kentucky is 26th in the country in rebounds (35.6 per game). It is 16th-best in rebounds allowed (27.4 per game).

The Wildcats average 79.5 points per game at home, and 67 on the road. At 6.8 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc, Kentucky is 246th and 52nd in college basketball, respectively, in those categories. The Wildcats give up 6.4 3-pointers per game and concede 33.3% from beyond the arc, ranking 77th and 158th, respectively, in the country.

The Wildcats have a 6-4 record against the spread while going 6-4 overall over their past 10 contests. Eight of Kentucky’s last 10 outings have hit the over. In its previous 10 games, Kentucky is tallying 71.7 points per contest, compared to its season average of 74.8. While the Wildcats are giving up 68 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse over their last 10 games, allowing 69.1 points per contest.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Mississippi State, and we predict that Kentucky will cover the spread (Mississippi State -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 128.5 points.

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How to bet Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

You can bet on Mississippi State vs. Kentucky at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Mississippi State vs. Kentucky picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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