Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023

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The No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-11, 8-10 SEC) are squaring off against the No. 8 seed Florida Gators (16-15, 9-9 SEC) in the SEC Tournament on Thursday at Bridgestone Arena. The contest is scheduled for 1:00 PM.

The Bulldogs square off with the Gators in a game that Mississippi State is currently a favorite by 5 points. The over/under is 130.5 points for the game.

Mississippi State vs. Florida Odds

Point Spread for Mississippi State vs. Florida

The spread for this matchup is set at 5 points, with oddsmakers listing Mississippi State as the favorite.

Mississippi State vs. Florida Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Mississippi State has -218 odds to pick up the win, while Florida is listed at +180 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 130.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: SEC Network
  • Location: Nashville, Tennessee
  • Arena: Bridgestone Arena

Mississippi State vs. Florida Betting Trends

Mississippi State is 16-15-0 against the spread this year. The Bulldogs have come away with 17 wins in the 22 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season. Mississippi State’s games this year have hit the over 12 times in 31 opportunities (38.7%).

Florida is 15-16-0 against the spread this year. The Gators have won two of the 12 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (16.7%). Florida’s games this season have hit the over 15 times in 31 opportunities (48.4%).

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Mississippi State vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith paces the Bulldogs with 15.4 points per game and 8.3 rebounds, while also putting up 1.8 assists. D.J. Jeffries is putting up 9 points, 1.8 assists and 6.2 rebounds per contest. Cameron Matthews puts up 7.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. At the other end, he puts up 1.6 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Shakeel Moore posts 9.8 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.8 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.


Colin Castleton is the Gators’ top scorer (16 points per game) and rebounder (7.7), and posts 2.7 assists. Will Richard gets the Gators 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game. He also posts 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Kyle Lofton leads the Gators in assists (3.4 per game), and puts up 9 points and 3 rebounds. He also posts 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Riley Kugel gets the Gators 9.7 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1 assists per game. He also averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

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What you need to know about the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State has won 10 games against the spread in conference play this season, while failing to cover eight times. The Bulldogs own a top-25 defense this season, ranking eighth-best in college basketball with 60.4 points allowed per game. On offense, they rank 314th with 66.4 points scored per contest. Mississippi State is 36th in the nation with 34.8 rebounds per game so far this year. Meanwhile, it ranks 124th with 30.2 rebounds allowed per game.

Mississippi State has been coming up short in terms of three-pointers this year, ranking 20th-worst in the country in three-pointers made per game (5.5) and -4-worst in three-point percentage (27.3%). This year, the Bulldogs are giving up 7.2 treys per game (178th-ranked in college basketball) and are allowing opponents to shoot 30.9% (34th-ranked) from downtown.

The Bulldogs have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, with a 7-3 record against the spread in that span. Six of Mississippi State’s last 10 contests have gone over the total. Mississippi State has been scoring 67.9 points per game in its last 10 appearances, an average that’s a little higher than the 66.4 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 season. Mississippi State has been slightly suspect on the defensive end of the floor recently, giving up 62.5 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 60.4 it has surrendered this year.

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What you need to know about the Florida Gators

Florida and its opponents have combined to go over the point total 10 out of 18 times this year in SEC action. With 72.1 points scored per game and 68.6 points conceded, the Gators are 172nd in the country on offense and 133rd on defense. In 2022-23, Florida is 165th in the country in rebounds (32 per game) and 15th-worst in rebounds conceded (34.6).

Beyond the arc, Florida is 258th in college basketball in 3-pointers made per game (6.7). It is 282nd in 3-point percentage at 32.4%. The Gators are 28th in the country in 3-pointers conceded (5.9 per game) and 60th in 3-point percentage defensively (31.8%).

The Gators have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 4-6 overall in their last 10 contests. Florida has hit the over in eight of its last 10 outings. While Florida is averaging 72.1 points per game in 2022-23, it has bettered that mark over its previous 10 games, amassing 72.9 a contest. While the Gators are allowing 68.6 points per game in 2022-23, they have been worse in their previous 10 games, allowing 76.3 points per contest.

Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Mississippi State, and we predict that Florida will cover the spread (Mississippi State -5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 130.5 points.

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How to bet Mississippi State vs. Florida

You can bet on Mississippi State vs. Florida at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Mississippi State vs. Florida picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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