Duke vs Virginia Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 11, 2023

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The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (25-6, 15-5 ACC) are squaring off in the ACC championship game against the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (25-8, 14-6 ACC). The title game is set for Saturday at 8:30 PM.

Duke is a moderate 3-point favorite against Virginia when the Blue Devils face off against the Cavaliers on Saturday. The over/under is 124 points for the game.

Duke vs. Virginia Odds

Point Spread for Duke vs. Virginia

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with bookmakers listing Duke as the favorite.

Duke vs. Virginia Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Duke has -155 odds to pick up the win, while Virginia is listed at +133 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 124 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
  • Arena: Greensboro Coliseum

Duke vs. Virginia Betting Trends

Duke has 14 wins against the spread in 33 games this year. The Blue Devils have been favorites in 28 games this season and have come away with the win 23 times (82.1%) in those contests. Duke has gone over the point total in 45.2% of its opportunities this year (14 times in 31 games with a set point total).

Virginia has 13 wins against the spread in 31 games this season. The Cavaliers have won 40% of the games this season they were the underdog on the moneyline (2-3). Virginia’s games this year have hit the over on 16 of 31 set point totals (51.6%).

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Duke vs. Virginia Key Players to Watch


Kyle Filipowski leads the Blue Devils with 15.3 points per contest and 8.9 rebounds, while also posting 1.6 assists. Jeremy Roach leads the Blue Devils at 3.2 assists per contest, while also putting up 2.5 rebounds and 13 points. Tyrese Proctor puts up a team-best 3.2 assists per contest. He is also posting 9.4 points and 3.2 rebounds, shooting 38.6% from the floor and 32.4% from downtown with 1.3 made 3-pointers per contest. Mark Mitchell is posting 9.3 points, 1.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game.


Kihei Clark is No. 1 on the Cavaliers in assists (5.6 per game), and averages 11.1 points and 2.7 rebounds. He also posts 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Reece Beekman is putting up 9.3 points, 3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, making 40.1% of his shots from the field. Jayden Gardner is averaging a team-high 5.8 rebounds per game. And he is contributing 12.3 points and 0.7 assists, making 52% of his shots from the floor. Armaan Franklin is putting up team highs in points (12.7 per game) and assists (1.4). And he is delivering 4.1 rebounds, making 42.7% of his shots from the field and 37.7% from 3-point range, with 1.9 triples per contest.

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What you need to know about the Duke Blue Devils

So far this season, 11 out of Duke’s 22 ACC games have hit the over. Offensively, the Blue Devils are putting up 72.9 points per game (152nd-ranked in college basketball). They are ceding 64.4 points per contest at the other end of the court (35th-ranked). Duke has been shining in terms of rebounding this year, ranking 13th-best in college basketball in boards per game (35.9) and 20th-best in boards allowed per contest (27.7).

Duke is draining 6.9 treys per game (230th-ranked in college basketball) this year, while putting up a 33.6% three-point percentage (214th-ranked). The Blue Devils are ceding 6.2 treys per game (51st-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 30.6% (26th-ranked) from three-point land.

The Blue Devils have gone 8-2 in their past 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread in that span. In its past 10 games, Duke has gone over the total five times. Duke has seen an increase in scoring recently, putting up 74 points per game in its last 10 outings, 1.1 points more than the 72.9 it has scored this year. Duke’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (66.7) is 2.3 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (64.4).

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What you need to know about the Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia has put together a 10-11-1 ATS record so far this season in conference games. The Cavaliers are 268th in the nation in points scored (68.4 per game) and sixth-best in points conceded (60.3). Virginia is 301st in the nation in rebounds per game (29.5) and 55th in rebounds conceded (29).

In 2022-23, Virginia is 230th in the nation in 3-point makes (6.9 per game) and 97th in 3-point percentage (35.7%). Defensively, the Cavaliers are 166th in the country in 3-pointers conceded per game at 7.1. They are 200th in 3-point percentage allowed at 34.1%.

The Cavaliers are 5-5 against the spread and 8-2 overall over their past 10 games. Virginia has hit the over in four of its last 10 contests. Virginia has fared worse offensively in its past 10 games, scoring 64.4 points per contest, four fewer points its than season average of 68.4. In their previous 10 games, the Cavaliers are surrendering 59.1 points per game, 1.2 fewer points than their season average (60.3).

Duke vs. Virginia Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is Duke, and we project that Virginia will cover the spread (Duke -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 124 points.

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How to bet Duke vs. Virginia

You can bet on Duke vs. Virginia at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Duke vs. Virginia picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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