Duke vs Tennessee Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 18, 2023

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The No. 5 seed Duke Blue Devils (27-8) and the No. 4 seed Tennessee Volunteers (24-10) play in the NCAA Tournament with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the East Region bracket on the line on Saturday at Amway Center, beginning at 2:40 PM.

Saturday’s game between the Blue Devils and the Volunteers features the Blue Devils as 3-point favorites. A 126-point over/under is set for the game.

Duke vs. Tennessee Odds

Point Spread for Duke vs. Tennessee

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing Duke as the favorite.

Duke vs. Tennessee Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Duke has -182 odds to pick up the win, while Tennessee is listed at +154 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 126 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • Game Time: 2:40 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orlando, Florida
  • Arena: Amway Center

Duke vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

Duke has 16 wins against the spread in 35 games this year. The Blue Devils have won in 25, or 83.3%, of the 30 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year. Duke’s games this year have gone over the total in 14 out of 34 opportunities (41.2%).

Tennessee is 17-17-0 against the spread this year. The Volunteers have lost all three of the games they have been the moneyline underdog this season. Tennessee’s games this year have hit the over 41.2% of the time (14 out of 34 games with a set point total).

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Duke vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch


Kyle Filipowski leads the Blue Devils with 15.1 points per game and 9 rebounds, while also averaging 1.6 assists. Jeremy Roach is posting 13.6 points, 3.1 assists and 2.5 rebounds per game. Tyrese Proctor leads the Blue Devils at 3.2 assists per contest, while also putting up 3.2 rebounds and 9.2 points. Dereck Lively II averages 5.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists per contest, shooting 65.3% from the field.


Santiago Vescovi is the Volunteers’ top scorer (12.6 points per game) and assist man (3), and posts 4.5 rebounds. Zakai Zeigler is registering a team-best 5.4 assists per game. He’s also contributing 10.7 points and 2.7 rebounds, making 37.5% of his shots from the floor, and 31.1% from 3-point range resulting in 1.7 triples per contest. Olivier Nkamhoua paces the Volunteers in rebounding (5 per game), and averages 10.5 points and 2 assists. He also averages 0.4 steals and 0.6 blocked shots. Julian Phillips is averaging 8.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, making 41.4% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the Duke Blue Devils

Offensively, the Blue Devils are posting 72.6 points per game (156th-ranked in college basketball). They are giving up 63.6 points per contest on defense (30th-ranked). Duke has been thriving in terms of rebounding this year, ranking 14th-best in the country in rebounds per game (35.9) and 20th-best in rebounds allowed per contest (27.8).

Duke ranks 237th in college basketball with 6.8 three-pointers per game so far this season. Meanwhile, it ranks 205th with a 33.7% shooting percentage from three-point land. With a 30.1% three-point percentage allowed this season, the Blue Devils are 16th-best in the nation. They rank 53rd in college basketball by ceding 6.2 treys per contest.

The Blue Devils have gone 10-0 in their last 10 games, with a 7-3 record against the spread in that span. Four of Duke’s past 10 outings have gone over the total. On the offensive side of the ball, Duke has increased its production slightly over its last 10 games, scoring 75.2 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 72.6 it has racked up over the course of this year. Duke has been more stingy on defense lately, giving up 61.7 points per game during its past 10 outings compared to the 63.6 points per game its opponents average over the 2022-23 season.

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What you need to know about the Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers are 184th in the nation in points scored (71.4 per game) and third-best in points conceded (57.9). On the glass, Tennessee is 22nd-best in the country in rebounds (35.6 per game). It is 34th in rebounds conceded (28.3 per game).

Tennessee makes 7.7 3-pointers per game and shoots 32.7% from beyond the arc, ranking 134th and 259th, respectively, in the nation. Defensively, the Volunteers are 24th-best in the country in 3-pointers allowed per game at 5.8. They are best in 3-point percentage allowed at 26.4%.

The Volunteers have gone 5-5 in their past 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span. Five of Tennessee’s past 10 contests have hit the over. Over its previous 10 games, Tennessee is scoring 69.9 points per game, compared to its season average of 71.4. The Volunteers have fared worse defensively in their last 10 games, ceding 64.9 points per contest, 7.0 more points their than season average of 57.9.

Duke vs. Tennessee Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this contest is Tennessee, and we predict that Tennessee will cover the spread (Duke -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 126 points.

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How to bet Duke vs. Tennessee

You can bet on Duke vs. Tennessee at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Duke vs. Tennessee picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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