Duke vs North Carolina Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, February 4, 2023

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The Duke Blue Devils (16-6, 7-4 ACC) hope to extend a 12-game home winning stretch when hosting the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-7, 7-4 ACC) on Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 6:30 PM ET.

Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels features the Blue Devils as moderate 3-point favorites. The game’s point total is 145.5.

Duke vs. North Carolina Odds

Point Spread for Duke vs. North Carolina

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing Duke as the favorite.

Duke vs. North Carolina Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Duke has -152 odds to pick up the win, while North Carolina is listed at +129 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 145.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • Location: Durham, North Carolina
  • Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium

Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

Duke has played 22 games, with eight wins against the spread. The Blue Devils have been chosen as favorites in 20 games this year and have walked away with the win 15 times (75%) in those games. Duke’s games this year have gone over the total in nine out of 22 opportunities (40.9%).

North Carolina is 7-15-0 against the spread this season. The Tar Heels have been the underdog on the moneyline a total of four times this season, and they’ve lost each of those games. North Carolina’s games this season have hit the over 10 times in 22 opportunities (45.5%).

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Duke vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch


Kyle Filipowski is tops on the Blue Devils with 15.8 points per contest and 9.5 rebounds, while also averaging 1.4 assists. Ryan Young is averaging 8.1 points, 1.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game. Tyrese Proctor puts up 8.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. At the other end, he posts 0.4 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Mark Mitchell puts up 9.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest. At the other end, he posts 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.

North Carolina

Armando Bacot paces the Tar Heels in scoring (17.7 points per game) and rebounding (11.3), and produces 1.7 assists. He also posts 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocked shots. RJ Davis is No. 1 on the Tar Heels in assists (3.1 per game), and averages 16 points and 5 rebounds. He also averages 1.2 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Caleb Love is posting 16.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3 assists per game, making 38.5% of his shots from the floor and 28.6% from beyond the arc, with 2 treys per game. Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black is averaging 6.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game, making 41.7% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the Duke Blue Devils

Duke has a record of just 2-9-0 against the spread in conference games this season. On offense, the Blue Devils are posting 72.9 points per game (155th-ranked in college basketball). They are surrendering 63.7 points per contest at the other end (37th-ranked). When it comes to rebounding, everything is clicking for Duke, who is grabbing 36.4 boards per game (14th-best in college basketball) and allowing 27.7 boards per contest (24th-best).

Offensively the Blue Devils have performed better at home this year, posting 78.6 points per game, compared to 70 per game in road games. So far this year, Duke is draining 6.9 threes per game (245th-ranked in college basketball) and is shooting 32.5% (267th-ranked) from downtown. With 6.1 treys conceded per game, the Blue Devils are 56th in the country. They are allowing a 30.1% shooting percentage from three-point land, which ranks 31st in college basketball.

The Blue Devils have two wins against the spread, and are 6-4 overall, in their past 10 contests. Duke has gone over the total in five of its last 10 contests. Duke has been racking up 72.6 points per contest in its last 10 times on the court, an average that’s slightly lower than the 72.9 it has scored over the course of the 2022-23 campaign. Duke has been less stingy on the defensive side of the ball lately, giving up 69.7 points per game during its last 10 contests compared to the 63.7 points per game its opponents are averaging over the 2022-23 season.

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What you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels

A total of four North Carolina conference games this season have hit the over. With 78.5 points scored per game and 71.7 points conceded, the Tar Heels are 38th in college basketball offensively and 243rd defensively. On the glass, North Carolina is 21st-best in college basketball in rebounds (36.1 per game). It is 191st in rebounds conceded (31.2 per game).

In 2022-23 the Tar Heels are scoring 10.1 more points per game at home (80.3) than away (70.2). North Carolina is 262nd in the country in 3-pointers made (6.7 per game) and 319th in 3-point percentage (31.1%). Defensively, the Tar Heels are 175th in college basketball in 3-pointers allowed per game at 7.1. They are 187th in 3-point percentage conceded at 33.7%.

The Tar Heels have gone 7-3 over their past 10 games, with a 3-7 record against the spread during that span. Four of North Carolina’s past 10 contests have hit the over. North Carolina has performed worse offensively in its last 10 games, posting 74.9 points per contest, 3.6 fewer points its than season average of 78.5. While the Tar Heels are surrendering 71.7 points per game in 2022-23, they have bettered that mark in their past 10 games, allowing 68.5 points per contest.

Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this game is Duke, and we predict that North Carolina will cover the spread (Duke -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 145.5 points.

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How to bet Duke vs. North Carolina

You can bet on Duke vs. North Carolina at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Duke vs. North Carolina picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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