Baylor vs UCSB Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Friday, March 17, 2023

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The No. 3 seed Baylor Bears (22-10) will try to defeat the No. 14 seed UCSB Gauchos (27-7) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at Ball Arena. This matchup tips off at 1:30 PM.

Baylor is a sizable 10.5-point favorite against UCSB when the Bears hit the court against the Gauchos on Friday. The over/under is 141 points for the game.

Baylor vs. UCSB Odds

Point Spread for Baylor vs. UCSB

The spread for this matchup is set at 10.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Baylor as the favorite.

Baylor vs. UCSB Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Baylor has -619 odds to pick up the win, while UCSB is listed at +448 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 141 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Friday, March 17, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • Arena: Ball Arena

Baylor vs. UCSB Betting Trends

In Baylor’s 32 games this season, it has 16 wins against the spread. The Bears have been victorious in 18, or 69.2%, of the 26 contests they have been chosen as favorites in this season. Baylor’s games this year have hit the over 53.1% of the time (17 out of 32 games with a set point total).

In UCSB’s 32 games this year, it has 20 wins against the spread. The Gauchos have won four of the five games they were the moneyline underdog this season (80%). UCSB’s games this year have eclipsed the over/under 19 times in 32 opportunities (59.4%).

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Baylor vs. UCSB Key Players to Watch


Adam Flagler is tops on the Bears at 4.7 assists per game, while also putting up 2.5 rebounds and 15.5 points. Keyonte George averages 15.8 points and 2.8 assists per contest — both team highs. He is also posting 4.2 rebounds, shooting 38.7% from the floor and 34.9% from downtown with 2.5 made 3-pointers per game. Jalen Bridges paces the Bears at 5.8 rebounds per game, while also putting up 1.1 assists and 10.3 points. LJ Cryer is posting 14.5 points, 2.1 assists and 2.1 rebounds per game.


Miles Norris is averaging 14.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest, making 48.4% of his shots from the floor and 38.8% from 3-point range, with 1.7 triples per contest. Andre Kelly is the Gauchos’ top rebounder (6.5 per game), and he posts 9.5 points and 0.9 assists. Josh Pierre-Louis is posting 9.7 points, 4 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, making 51.3% of his shots from the field.

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What you need to know about the Baylor Bears

On offense, the Bears are scoring 77.2 points per game (52nd-ranked in college basketball). They are surrendering 70.3 points per contest on defense (184th-ranked). This season, Baylor is pulling down 30.2 boards per game (266th-ranked in college basketball) and ceding 29.2 rebounds per contest (65th-ranked).

Baylor ranks 14th-best in the nation by sinking 9.7 three-pointers per game. In terms of three-point percentage, it ranks 35th in college basketball at 37.2%. The Bears are ceding 6.8 three-pointers per game (127th-ranked in college basketball). They are allowing opposing teams to shoot 32.2% (81st-ranked) from beyond the arc.

The Bears have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games, with a 6-4 record against the spread in that span. Six of Baylor’s past 10 outings have hit the over. Baylor has seen a downturn in scoring lately, putting up 74.3 points per game in its last 10 contests, 2.9 points fewer than the 77.2 it has scored this year. Baylor has been more porous on defense lately, allowing 72.2 points per game over its past 10 contests compared to the 70.3 points per game its opponents average on the 2022-23 season.

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What you need to know about the UCSB Gauchos

At 72.2 points scored per game and 65.6 points allowed, the Gauchos are 166th in college basketball offensively and 51st defensively. In 2022-23, UCSB is 302nd in the country in rebounds (29.3 per game) and sixth-best in rebounds conceded (26.6).

Beyond the arc, UCSB is 22nd-worst in college basketball in 3-pointers made per game (5.6). It is ranked 118th in 3-point percentage at 35.2%. Defensively, the Gauchos are 24th-best in the nation in 3-pointers conceded per game at 5.8. They are 221st in 3-point percentage allowed at 34.3%.

The Gauchos have a 5-4-1 record against the spread while going 7-3 overall in their last 10 games. UCSB has gone over the total in seven of its past 10 outings. UCSB is scoring 74.5 points per game in its past 10 games, which is 2.3 more than its average for the season (72.2). The Gauchos are ceding 71.2 points per game over their previous 10 games, which is 5.6 more points than they are allowing for the season (65.6).

Baylor vs. UCSB Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Baylor, and we project that UCSB will cover the spread (Baylor -10.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 141 points.

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How to bet Baylor vs. UCSB

You can bet on Baylor vs. UCSB at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Baylor vs. UCSB picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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