Arkansas vs Kentucky Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (19-11, 8-9 SEC) take on the Kentucky Wildcats (20-10, 11-6 SEC) at 2:00 PM ET on Saturday in SEC play. The matchup airs on CBS.

Saturday’s game between the Razorbacks and the Wildcats sees the Razorbacks as 4.5-point favorites. The over/under is 141.5 points for the game.

Arkansas vs. Kentucky Odds

Point Spread for Arkansas vs. Kentucky

The spread for this matchup is set at 4.5 points, with oddsmakers listing Arkansas as the favorite.

Arkansas vs. Kentucky Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Arkansas has -224 odds to pick up the win, while Kentucky is listed at +184 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 141.5 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas
  • Arena: Bud Walton Arena

Arkansas vs. Kentucky Betting Trends

Against the spread, Arkansas is 15-14-1 this year. The Razorbacks have been chosen as favorites in 22 games this year and have walked away with the win 17 times (77.3%) in those games. Arkansas’ games this year have hit the over on 12 of 30 set point totals.

Against the spread, Kentucky is 14-16-0 this season. The Wildcats have been the underdog on the moneyline six total times this season. They’ve gone 3-3 in those games. Kentucky’s games this year have eclipsed the over/under 18 times in 30 opportunities (60%).

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Arkansas vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch


Anthony Black leads the Razorbacks at 4.2 assists per contest, while also averaging 5 rebounds and 12.7 points. Ricky Council IV leads the Razorbacks at 16.6 points per game, while also averaging 2.4 assists and 3.4 rebounds. Davonte Davis posts 10.9 points, 4 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.1 blocked shots. Makhi Mitchell puts up a team-leading 5.7 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 6.9 points and 1.1 assists, shooting 65.1% from the floor.


Oscar Tshiebwe is the Wildcats’ top scorer (16.5 points per game) and rebounder (13.1, first in college basketball), and delivers 1.6 assists. Cason Wallace is the Wildcats’ top assist man (4.2 per game), and he averages 11.7 points and 3.5 rebounds. Jacob Toppin gives the Wildcats 12 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. He also posts 0.5 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. Antonio Reeves is putting up 13.4 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.1 assists per contest, making 41.6% of his shots from the field and 40.8% from beyond the arc, with 2.3 treys per game.

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What you need to know about the Arkansas Razorbacks

So far this season, eight out of Arkansas’ 17 SEC games have hit the over. With 74.7 points per game on offense, the Razorbacks are 110th in the nation. At the other end, they surrender 66.5 points per contest, which ranks 75th in college basketball. With 32.5 boards per game, Arkansas is 132nd in the nation. It allows 29.1 rebounds per contest, which ranks 63rd in college basketball.

In home games, the Razorbacks are averaging 7.2 more points per game (76.1) than they are when playing on the road (68.9). While Arkansas ranks in the bottom 25 in the country in treys per game with 5.1 (12th-worst), it ranks 300th in college basketball with a 32.1% three-point percentage. The Razorbacks rank top-25 this year in three-pointers allowed, currently ninth-best in college basketball with 5.3 threes allowed per game. Meanwhile, they rank 37th with a 31% shooting percentage allowed from beyond the arc.

The Razorbacks have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a 6-4 record against the spread in that span. Six of Arkansas’ past 10 contests have gone over the total. Arkansas has seen a decrease in scoring recently, racking up 73.9 points per game in its last 10 contests, 0.8 points fewer than the 74.7 it has scored this season. Arkansas has been slightly suspect on the defensive end of the floor of late, giving up 69.6 points per game over its last 10 outings compared to the 66.5 it has conceded this year.

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What you need to know about the Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky’s conference games have hit the over 11 out of 17 times this year. With 74.7 points scored per game and 67.3 points conceded, the Wildcats are 110th in college basketball on offense and 97th defensively. On the glass, Kentucky is 15th-best in college basketball in rebounds (36 per game). It is 11th-best in rebounds conceded (26.8 per game).

The Wildcats score 78.4 points per game at home, and 69.4 on the road. At 6.5 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 36.1% from downtown, Kentucky is 274th and 71st in the country, respectively, in those categories. The Wildcats are 85th in college basketball in 3-pointers allowed (6.5 per game) and 121st in 3-point percentage defensively (32.9%).

The Wildcats have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 6-4 overall in their last 10 games. Seven of Kentucky’s past 10 outings have gone over the total. In its last 10 games, Kentucky is scoring 72.7 points per game, two fewer points than its season average (74.7). The Wildcats are surrendering 69.1 points per contest over their past 10 games, compared to their season average of 67.3 points allowed.

Arkansas vs. Kentucky Prediction & Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is Arkansas, and we predict that Kentucky will cover the spread (Arkansas -4.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 141.5 points.

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How to bet Arkansas vs. Kentucky

You can bet on Arkansas vs. Kentucky at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Arkansas vs. Kentucky picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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