Alabama vs Missouri Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Saturday, March 11, 2023

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The No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (27-5, 16-2 SEC) will head into the SEC Tournament against the No. 4 seed Missouri Tigers (24-8, 11-7 SEC) on Saturday at Bridgestone Arena, beginning at 1:00 PM.

Alabama is a healthy 9.5-point favorite against Missouri when the Crimson Tide square off against the Tigers on Saturday. The over/under for the game is set at 158.

Alabama vs. Missouri Odds

Point Spread for Alabama vs. Missouri

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with sportsbooks listing Alabama as the favorite.

Alabama vs. Missouri Moneyline

As for the moneyline, Alabama has -514 odds to pick up the win, while Missouri is listed at +390 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 158 points.

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Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Nashville, Tennessee
  • Arena: Bridgestone Arena

Alabama vs. Missouri Betting Trends

Against the spread, Alabama is 18-14-0 this year. The Crimson Tide have been favorites in 27 games this season and have come away with the win 24 times (88.9%) in those contests. Alabama’s games this year have hit the over on 15 of 31 set point totals.

In Missouri’s 31 games this season, it has 16 wins against the spread. The Tigers have won six of the 13 games they were the moneyline underdog this season (46.2%). Missouri’s games this year have gone over the point total 54.8% of the time (17 out of 31 games with a set point total).

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Alabama vs. Missouri Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Brandon Miller puts up 19.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per contest — both team highs. He is also averaging 1.9 assists, shooting 45.3% from the floor and 40.5% from beyond the arc with 3 made 3-pointers per game. Noah Clowney paces the Crimson Tide at 8.1 rebounds per game, while also putting up 0.8 assists and 9.9 points. Mark Sears is averaging 12.9 points, 2.6 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. Charles Bediako puts up 5.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game, shooting 64.1% from the floor.

Missouri

Kobe Brown is putting up team highs in points (16.2 per game) and rebounds (6.3). And he is producing 2.5 assists, making 55.8% of his shots from the floor and 45.5% from 3-point range, with 1.5 triples per game. D’Moi Hodge is averaging 14.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, making 47.4% of his shots from the floor and 39.8% from beyond the arc, with 2.9 treys per contest. Noah Carter gives the Tigers 9.5 points, 4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He also puts up 0.5 steals and 0.4 blocked shots. Nick Honor is the Tigers’ top assist man (2.8 per game), and he produces 8.2 points and 1.7 rebounds.

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What you need to know about the Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is 12-7-0 ATS in conference games this season. The Crimson Tide have been lifted by their offense, as they rank sixth-best in the country by putting up 82.5 points per game. They rank 142nd in college basketball in points allowed (68.9 per contest). Alabama ranks best in college basketball by grabbing 40.6 boards per game. In terms of rebounds allowed, it ranks 302nd in college basketball (33.1 allowed per contest).

Alabama sports a 33.9% three-point percentage this season (196th-ranked in college basketball), but it has really thrived by draining 10.1 treys per contest (ninth-best). The Crimson Tide have been shining in terms of defending against three-point shooting this season, ranking 15th-best in the country in threes allowed per game (5.5) and third-best in three-point percentage allowed (27.9%).

The Crimson Tide have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 8-2 overall in their past 10 games. Alabama has hit the over in five of its past 10 games. Alabama has seen a downturn in scoring lately, racking up 80.7 points per game in its last 10 outings, 1.8 points fewer than the 82.5 it has scored this year. Alabama has been slightly suspect on the defensive end of the floor recently, allowing 69.4 points per game over its last 10 outings compared to the 68.9 it has surrendered this season.

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What you need to know about the Missouri Tigers

So far this season, 10 out of Missouri’s 19 SEC games with an over/under have gone over the point total. In 2022-23, the Tigers are 21st-best in college basketball offensively (80.1 points scored per game) and ranked 307th defensively (74.7 points conceded). In 2022-23, Missouri is eighth-worst in the nation in rebounds (27.8 per game) and 25th-worst in rebounds allowed (34).

Missouri is the 23rd-best team in the nation in 3-pointers made (9.4 per game) and 69th in 3-point percentage (36.3%). In 2022-23, the Tigers are 20th-worst in the country in 3-pointers conceded (8.9 per game) and 293rd in defensive 3-point percentage (35.6%).

The Tigers have gone 7-3 in their past 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span. In its past 10 contests, Missouri has gone over the total five times. Over its previous 10 games, Missouri is compiling 73 points per game, compared to its season average of 80.1. The Tigers have fared better defensively in their last 10 games, giving up 73.1 points per contest, 1.6 fewer points than their season average of 74.7 allowed.

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction & Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is Alabama, and we project that Alabama will cover the spread (Alabama -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 158 points.

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How to bet Alabama vs. Missouri

You can bet on Alabama vs. Missouri at every legal online sportsbook. For more college basketball odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals, check out the latest NCAA lines as well as our guide to the best college basketball betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Alabama vs. Missouri picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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